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UCLA vs. Gonzaga over/under betting – March Madness

Bet on the UCLA vs. Gonzaga over/under#11 UCLA Bruins vs. #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs preview – Sweet Sixteen round

Starts: Friday, March 27th 2015 at 7:15pm ET
Venue: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
TV: CBS

CAN the #11 UCLA Bruins continue advancing in the NCAA basketball tournament with a win against the #2 Gonzaga Bulldogs?

The Bruins are the highest seed left in the tourney and they’re about to face a big test in the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA upset SMU (60-59) in the second round and they were lucky enough to play against UAB in the third round – a game they won by 17 points (92-75).

Gonzaga are one of the highest scoring teams in the country and they’ve proven that throughout the tournament. The Bulldogs beat North Dakota State (86-76) to open up the tourney and then followed that up with a blowout win against Iowa (87-68).

Bet on March Madness Sweet Sixteen action at Bovada.lv (USA) or Bodog.eu (Canada).

Bruins vs. Bulldogs betting odds

Gonzaga are receiving roughly 60% of the point spread and money line bets at the window right now. The public is close to split on the point spread and for good reason – an –8.5 point spread is a lot to cover. I’m more interested in the over/under market though.

The total opened at 144.5 points and has been bet up a point – with 75% of the bets on the over.

Starting line-ups

UCLA Bruins:

Gonzaga Bulldogs:

Breaking down the offense and defense

Unlike most teams playing each other in March Madness – the Bruins and Bulldogs have played each other this season. UCLA hosted Gonzaga back on December 13th 2014 and they were blown out (87-74) on their home court, as the defense couldn’t stop anyone.

Wiltjer (24 points and 4 rebounds) and Wesley (20 points and 9 rebounds) led the way for the Zags, while Alford (23 points) led UCLA in scoring. Hamilton (18 points), Looney (14 points) and Powell (12 points) all scored in double-digits for the Bruins too.

The big difference was bench scoring – Gonzaga’s bench outscored UCLA’s bench by 13 points (15-2) — the exact margin of victory.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams rank offensively.

Gonzaga are averaging 86.5 PPG in the tourney thanks to some excellent shooting. The Bulldogs went 30-58 (51.7%) from the field and 7-22 from deep (31.8%) against NDSU. Against Iowa, the Zags went 32-52 (61.5%) from the field and 10-16 (62.5%) from deep.

This team can shoot the basketball, but one area they need to improve in is free throw shooting. Gonzaga only shot 61.9% (13-21) from the FT line against Iowa and 67.9% (19-28) from the charity stripe against the Bison.

Wiltjer has been the best player in the tourney for Gonzaga, as he’s averaging 23.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG. Pangos is averaging 17.0 PPG and 4.0 APG. For the Bruins – Alford has been the best player. He has 27 points and 22 points in the Bruins two games.

Parker was terrible against SMU, but he bounced back with 28 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks against UAB.

The Bruins are shooting over 50% (15-29) from 3-point distance and they’ll need to do the same against Gonzaga to keep up on the scoreboard against the Zags. It’ll be up to the five starters for UCLA, as there bench has been terrible all season.

Both teams are strong at rebounding, but the Zags are much better. UCLA are much worse defensively too, but they had to play a tough schedule. The Zags have a size advantage as well. They feature two big 7’1’’ centers and both guys clog up the middle well.

I’m surprised the Bruins average more blocks than Gonzaga – the Bruins don’t have a player taller than 6’10’’.

UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs O/U predictions

UCLA were unable to stop the Zags when they played earlier this season. They allowed 87 points – the most UCLA allowed all season up to this point. I’m confident Gonzaga will reach 80 points, which means the Bruins only need to score 66 points.

Both teams are going to throw up a ton of 3-pointers. That doesn’t mean there will be a lot of points, as 3-point shooting is volatile and if they aren’t dropping this game would likely stay under. The total is big for college hoops, but the best bet for this game.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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