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Troy vs. Arkansas State Preview & Betting Analysis

Arkansas State Red Devils vs. Troy Trojans Week 3

Start Time: Thursday, September 12th 2013 at 7:30pm ET
Location: Liberty Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas

Troy (2-0) has started the season off with two wins over UAB (34-31) and Savannah State (66-3). They now have a real test on the road, as they get ready to take on Arkansas State (1-1). This Sun Belt conference match-up will be aired on ESPN on Thursday.

Trojans vs. Red Devils Point Spread & Game Total Odds

The Red Devils opened up as –10 point favorites, but that line is already down to –7.5 points at Bovada. If you like the Trojans I’d bet on them now before the spread drops to a TD or lower. The over/under is a massive O/U 66.5 (-110) and it’s likely to increase.

Bovada Sportsbook Live Odds
Teams
Point Spread
Money Line
Game Total
Troy Trojans
+7.5 (-110)
+250
Over 66.5 (-110)
Arkansas State Red Devils
-7.5 (-110)
-300
Under 66.5 (-110)

Can Arkansas State Bounce Back After Losing to Auburn?

The Red Devils traveled to play in front of 85,000+ at Auburn last weekend and they lost 38-9 against their former coach. They put a lot of emotion into that game and they now have to rebound quickly, as Troy always play the Red Devils tough every year.

Arkansas State has won the last two H2H meetings by the scores of 41-34 (2012) and 45-14 (2011). In 2010 Troy won 35-28 and they were –10.5 point underdogs in that match-up. These two teams play each other annually and there is definitely a rivalry.

This team feasts on the run game and right now they rank 9th in the country (329.5 RYPG). Senior David Oku leads the team with 32 carries for 172 rushing yards and 2 TD’s. However, Fredi Knighten has looked great as well and is averaging 17.9 yards per carry.

They also average 217.5 PYPG (69th), but this team is built around the run. QB Adam Kennedy is a senior this year and he has been accurate all season (71.7% Completion %). He hasn’t thrown a single interception yet in two games, but he also only has 1 TD.

Will Troy Start Conference Play With An Upset Victory?

Troy has a lot of seniors on this team that were around for the win against Arkansas State in 2010. I’m sure after two straight losses against their Sun Belt rival they’ll come out and play hard. The Trojans are a team that can beat you with the pass or the run.

The Trojans rank 28th in passing (299.5 PYPG) and 42nd in rushing (214.5 RYPG), but they played two cupcake opponents. They gave up 31 points against UAB in the season opener and had to go to OT in order to squeak out a win as a –4.5 point home favorite.

Last season Troy played well on the road as underdogs and went 4-1-1 ATS in away games. QB Corey Robinson, RB Deon Anthony and WR Eric Thomas are all seniors on this offense and will need to step up big if they want to pull off the upset.

Robinson is 47 of 51 (92.2%) for 499 yards through the air. He has 5 passing TD’s (4 of them to Thomas) and 0 INT’s. He will come in this game full of confidence, but this Red Devils defense is going to be much tougher than the two defenses he has played against.

Who Will Win This Sun Belt Match-Up on Thursday?

If you got +10 points that’s great, but I still like Troy at over a TD. You could wait for some money to come in on the Red Devils this week, as the spread could move up to +8/+9 possibly. However, you also take the risk of the spread continuing to drop down.

The reason I expect the Trojans to stay within a TD in this game is because Arkansas State went all out emotionally last week against Auburn and their former coach. That drains a team and it’s hard to get back up to that level the following week.

Troy was great ATS on the road last season and this offense is full of seniors. The Arkansas State defense can be beat through the air and I expect Robinson to throw the football a lot. He has been deadly accurate thus far and if he keeps it up Troy may win SU.

This is going to be a high scoring game with back-to-back offensive scores, but the total is pretty high. At close to 70 points I’m not going to be entering the over/under market in this match-up. Sticking with Troy +7.5 points and that’s it for this game.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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