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Titans Are Home Underdogs Against the Chiefs in Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans Preview

Time: Sunday, October 6th 2013 at 1:00pm ET
Where: LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee
Watch: Live on CBS

The Tennessee Titans 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) host the Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at LP Field on Sunday. This would have been a thrilling game to watch, but once it was confirmed that Jake Locker will be out several weeks this game looks like it could be a blow out.

Point Spread Odds in Chiefs vs. Titans

Bovada Live Odds
Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans
Point Spread:
-3 (-115)
+3 (-105)
Money Line
-145
+125
Game Total
O39 (-110)
U39 (-110)

I’m surprised that the bookmakers haven’t moved this line at all yet. The Chiefs opened up as –3 point favorites and you can still get them at –3 (-115) at Bovada right now. The Chiefs are a public bet this week, but the only way they lose is if they don’t come to play.

Any team can win on any given Sunday, so the Chiefs can’t take the Titans lightly even though Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at QB this week for Tennessee. With the Chiefs perfect record intact I think they’re going to come out focused and make sure they win.

Will Kansas City Remain Undefeated

Kansas City has already played in two road games this season. They beat the Jaguars 28-2 (W1) and the Eagles 26-16 (W3). Beating the Jags is nothing to write home about, but going into Lincoln Financial Field and winning on Thursday Night Football isn’t easy.

Andy Reid has done a great job playing to the Chief’s strengths this season, which is their defense. The Chiefs have only allowed an average of 10.2 PPG (1st) and no team has scored more than 16 points on them this season, which is remarkable.

This is a pass first league now and the Chiefs have only allowed 188.8 PYPG (2nd). Stopping the run has been a work in progress, as they’ve allowed 117.5 RYPG (24th), however, KC only allows opponents to score TD’s on 25% of their red zone possessions (1st).

Allowing teams to run the football is fine if you can stop them in the red zone and force them to kick FG’s. The Chiefs are also forcing a lot of turnovers (3 Takeaways per Game – 3rd). This Chiefs defense is difficult to score on and that’s why they’re 4-0.

Offensively the Chiefs have scored 25.5 PPG (11th) and gained an average of 342.7 YPG (17th). Alex Smith is averaging 226.5 passing yards per game (22nd), which will have to become better. Last week he went 24/41 for 288 yards and 3 TD’s, but he had 2 INT’s.

Those were his first two interceptions on the season and he’ll have to protect the football better this week. Tennessee is averaging 2.2 takeaways per game (8th) and they’ll take advantage of any mistakes that Alex Smith and the KC offense makes on Sunday.

What Will Life Without Jake Locker Be Like for Tennessee

Jake Locker will be out for at least 4-6 weeks and Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to step in for him while he’s out. Fitzpatrick will be tasked with keeping the Titans playoff hopes alive. I don’t think he’s that good of a QB and the Chiefs have to be happy about playing him.

The Titans are one of the worst passing teams in the league (193 PYPG – 29th), but Locker didn’t make costly mistakes. Fitzpatrick has actually done well against Kansas the L2 years (With Buffalo), but this is a new offense and he knows he won’t be taking Locker’s job.

It’s hard to come in as a starter in week 5 with a new team and I can’t imagine Fitzpatrick having much chemistry with the WR’s on Tennessee. I expect the Titans to hand the football off to Chris Johnson a lot this game to test the Chiefs struggling front seven.

Just like the Chiefs the Titans rely on their defense a lot. Tennessee has allowed 17.2 PPG (7th), 214.2 PYPG (10th) and 99 RYPG (12th) on average this season. The defense is going to have to keep Jamaal Charles in check if they want to keep this game close.

Will the Chiefs or Titans Cover the Spread

Both defenses are very good and this should be a defensive battle that is low scoring. The reason I like the Chiefs on the road is due to trusting Alex Smith more than Ryan Fitzpatrick. When you need a 3rd down conversion I’d rather have Smith throwing the football.

Fitzpatrick is likely to make more mistakes as well. This is his 1st regular season game this year and the first with his new team, so it’s unlikely he’ll look too good. I think the Titans game plan will be to keep the football in the hands of Chris Johnson.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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