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Tigers vs. Crimson Tide Point Spread Analysis

#13 LSU Tigers vs. #1 Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

Start Time: Saturday, November 10th 2013 at 8:00pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama

When these two teams meet there is always fireworks and this year’s LSU Tigers 7-2 (4-4-1 ATS) team is strong offensively. It would be much better if the Alabama Crimson Tide 8-0 (5-3 ATS) had to travel to play in Baton Rouge, but that isn’t the case for this game.

Alabama won both of the H2H meetings last year against LSU, but this year I expect the game to be close. The Tigers have to be upset about having two losses already this season, but they’d love nothing more than to give the Crimson Tide their first loss of the year.

Latest Tigers vs. Crimson Tide Betting Lines

Alabama opened up as an –11 point favorite earlier this week, but most of the action is on the Crimson Tide, which has bumped up the point spread to –12.5 points at the majority of betting shops including Bovada. I wouldn’t expect much more line movement before the game on Saturday night.

Will the Crimson Tide Cover the Spread at Home?

The Crimson Tide are once again one of the best football teams on both sides of the football. Alabama has averaged 41.3 PPG (11th) while allowing just 9.8 PPG (1st). They’ve also been battle tested already with wins over Texas A&M (49-42) and Ole Miss (25-0).

AJ McCarron has a QB rating of 166.6 through ten weeks. He has completed 69.4% of his pass attempts (145/209) for 1862 yards and 16 TD’s. He has also protected the football very well, as he only has 3 INT’s, but the Tigers defense is the best that he has faced.

The Bama pass game ranks 51st (252 PYPG), but they have an excellent run game that ranks 26th (210.8 RYPG). T.J. Yeldon leads the team with 115 carries for 729 rushing yards and 10 TD’s. Kenyan Drake also has 491 rushing yards and 7 TD’s on 63 carries.

LSU is allowing 155.5 RYPG (52nd), so the Crimson Tide should be able to find running room on this front seven. However, McCarron is going to find it difficult throwing on the Tigers secondary. LSU is only allowing 215.4 PYPG (29th) through the air this season.

How the Tigers Can Upset Bama on the Road

It’s going to be tough for the Tigers to pull off the upset on the road and I think it’s very unlikely that they win although I do expect them to keep this game close within the point spread. The only team that has solved the Bama defense is A&M who put up 42 pts.

Alabama has held the rest of their opponents to 10 points or less, which is incredible. Alabama’s defense has allowed an average of 101.9 RYPG (8th) and 179 PYPG (6th). Only Johnny Manziel has solved this defense, but Zach Mettenberger isn’t a dual threat QB.

LSU is averaging 40.2 PPG (16th), 279.4 PYPG (28th) and 200.6 RYPG (31st) offensively. The two players that need to play well for LSU on Saturday are Odell Beckham and Jeremy Hill. If these two players can beat the Tigers defense this game will end up within a TD.

Beckham has 48 receptions for 1009 receiving yards and 8 TD’s this season. He is the best big play threat in the WR unit. RB Hill has 12 rushing TD’s this season and he has been averaging 7.2 yards per rush attempt. He has to be able to pick up 1st downs for LSU.

LSU vs. Alabama Predictions

The last time these two played in Alabama was in 2011 when the Tigers won 9-6 in an extremely close game. I expect more points to be scored this week, as the defenses on both teams aren’t as strong as they once were plus the LSU offense is better now.

This will be a great test for Mettenberger against the #1 college football defense. Mettenberger has had trouble in some games this season with turnovers, as he has 7 interceptions already. If he’s turning the football over this game could get out of hand early.

LSU knows that this is basically their championship game, so I expect them to go all out in order to win. They have two losses on the season, so they won’t be in the hunt for a National Championship, but they could throw a wrench into Alabama’s plans on Saturday.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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