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Texas vs Oklahoma ML Odds, O/U Total and Prediction

Texas Longhorns (3-2) @ Oklahoma Sooners(4-1)

  • Where: Cotton Bowl (Neutral Site) . Dallas, TX
  • When: October 14, 2017 3:30 pm EST
  • Spread: Texas (+8) vs Oklahoma (-8)
  • Moneyline: Texas (+260) vs Oklahoma (-320)
  • Over / Under: Over 64.5 (-115) vs Under 64.5 (-105)

There are many obvious narratives when Texas and Oklahoma play, most having almost nothing to do with the student-athletes taking the field on Saturday. It seems like every pundit and prognosticator becomes a would-be historian, waxing poetic about Barry Switzer and Earl Campbell.

How about the festival and the parades? Try any Fried Coca-Cola or deep-skillet candy bars lately? And exactly how much money will oil tycoons win and lose from one another in luxury-box wagers?

But let’s not forget the 2017 teams who’ll be actually be deciding this thing. To the casual bettor and serious ML player, the dangerously unhealthy food, grand-standing bets between billionaires and 100 years of fanfare mean little compared to winning some cash.

The teams are strong and talented, and a study in contrasts. Texas had turmoil at the beginning of the season and may be beginning to figure things out. Oklahoma whipped Ohio State 31-16 in Week 2 and looked to be waging a successful coup on behalf of the Big 12. But a loss to Iowa State last week made QB Baker Mayfield look ordinary, and gave Sooner fans a week of hand-wringing going into the annual clash in Dallas. Bookies are barely giving OU a touchdown advantage.

A crisis in Normal

OU’s problems may have seemed to jump out of nowhere last weekend, but we’re thinking the slide backward began a little “Sooners” than that.

The Okies were a perfect 3-0 when traveling to face the hapless Baylor Bears. All seemed fine after a 21-7 romp in the 1st quarter. But the Sooner defense, so stubborn against Ohio State and Tulane, began springing leaks in the secondary. Baylor QB Zach Smith passed for 463 yards and 4 touchdowns as the win-less Bears roared back and nearly embarrassed Oklahoma in a 49-41 final.

There was no improvement against the pass last Saturday, as unheralded ISU quarterback Kyle Kempt had a near-perfect day and tossed 3 touchdowns in the upset win. OU’s vaunted pass rush was essentially nil, with 1 sack and few hurries. Mayfield finished with decent numbers, but failed to inspire his team in the clutch.

Bad defense can make an entire team jittery, putting undue pressure on an offense to score on every drive. The Okies want to get back to handing the ball off to talented backs, like freshman speedster Trey Sermon. But if the ‘D keeps leaving opposing WRs wide-open, Mayfield and company will be stressed and playing catch-up.

All my X’s (and O’s)

Texas seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Road trips to ISU are tough (just ask the Sooners) but the Longhorn defense shut down Smith and the Cyclones’ fast WR corps to the tune of 17-7.

Last Saturday, UT earned newfound respect among pundits who had criticized Coach Tom Herman, beating KSU 40-34 in a dramatic national game. A team-oriented defense is getting cranked-up in spurts, sacking Wildcat QB Jesse Ertz 3 times and holding Alex Barnes to just 4.4 yards per carry.

For all of the Sooners’ flaws and injury-woes on defense, they can stop the run. To protect QB Sam Ehlinger and move the egg for 4 quarters, the Longhorns must be able to plunge for tough yards up the middle. But against K-State, Ehlinger was far and away the team’s best runner – often to the outside on option-keepers.

Winning play on the Over/Under

Click here to place a bet on Over (64.5) points at Bet Online and get a 50% welcome bonus!

Texas is a tempting money-line or ATS bet considering that the Longhorns are finding their stride under Herman after a trying and controversy-plagued first few weeks. But we don’t think UT can play it safe or get comfortable at any point – to make it close at the end, Ehlinger’s offense will have to play wide-open.

Mayfield also feels like a feast-or-famine QB at this stage of his career, and he knows the Sooners need a victory after playing under their potential in recent Red River games. He’ll be throwing, scrambling and galloping.

Take the over. We’re expecting a knock-down, drag-out fight in which both defenses will play nobly in the 1st half and get lost in a track meet in the 2nd. Think 45-38 in single OT…and place a winning bet on over (64.5) points.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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