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Texas A&M vs. LSU Betting Preview

#12 Texas A&M Aggies vs. #22 LSU Tigers Game Analysis

Kick-Off Time: Saturday, November 23rd 2013 at 3:30pm ET
Location: Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Network: Watch Live on CBS

Texas A&M 8-2 (5-5 ATS) and the LSU Tigers 7-3 (4-5-1 ATS) have both had “disappointing” seasons. Both teams had hopes of being in contention for a BCS National Championship, but after losing multiple games neither team will make it to the big game this year.

Aggies vs. Tigers Betting Lines

The point spread has opened up at –4 points in favor of the Tigers who are a tough team to beat at home. LSU still hasn’t lost a game at home this season although their best wins weren’t against that tough of competition (TCU & Florida). No total has been released.

How the Aggies Can Beat LSU

I thought this game would open at –2.5 in favor of LSU and I’m a little surprised the Aggies are getting over a FG. Last year these two teams played and the Tigers went into College Station and won (24-19) while also forcing Johnny Manziel into throwing 3 INT’s.

Manziel is going to play with a chip on his shoulder in this game, as he wants to get revenge on the Tigers home turf. The Aggies are picking up an average of 379.2 PYPG (6th) and 198.8 RYPG (34th) offensively while scoring 49.2 PPG (5th) on their opposition.

The least amount of points scored by the Aggies in a game this season has been 41 (Ole Miss & Auburn). LSU has a solid defense, but they still allow 23.5 PPG (38th) and have had trouble against some of the better offenses that they’ve played against this season.

Texas A&M will win this game if Manziel plays like he has all season. Mike Evans has emerged as a superstar this season in CFB and I expect him to have another great game. Evans has 57 receptions for 1263 receiving yards (22.2 Yards per Reception) and 12 TD’s.

How the Tigers Can Beat Texas A&M

LSU just lost their game of the year against Alabama and it’s going to be hard to get up for this match-up. Last year when they beat the Aggies they rushed the football for 219 yards and 2 TD’s on 45 carries. They’ll need a similar output to beat A&M this Saturday.

Jeremy Hill leads LSU with 141 carries for 964 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. As a team they average 184.8 RYPG (52nd), 275.6 PYPG (31st) and 37.9 PPG (21st). Zach Mettenberger has had a good season and he has already thrown 20 TD passes compared to just 7 INT’s.

Defensively the Tigers have to be able to stop Manziel from picking up yards with his feet, which they did a great job of last year in their lone H2H match-up. However, the Tigers defense isn’t as good this year and Manziel is likely to have his day with LSU.

The Aggies allow 30.9 PPG (88th) this season and I can see this game being another shoot-out. In back and forth offensive games my money will more often than not end up on Manziel. Mettenberger and Hill are playing good, but the Aggies are more consistent.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Best Bet

Heading into Baton Rouge is tough, but if one team can beat LSU at home it’s the Aggies and their high-powered offense. Manziel is going to remember what happened at College Station last year against the Tigers and I expect him to play one of his best games.

Neither team is forcing that many turnovers. The Aggies have a turnover margin of +0.1 (57th) while the Tigers have a TOM of –0.2 (72nd) this season. If one team can force multiple turnovers it could change the entire game, but we can’t predict that happening.

On paper there is no question that the Aggies have the superior offense. LSU is allowing 211.3 PYPG (29th) and the only way they’ll win is if they can limit Manziel and Evans. They also have to run the football a lot to keep the clock running and A&M off the field.

The Aggies give up 207.4 RYPG (100th) and LSU should have success rushing the football with Hill. However, at –4 points I feel that the spread is too big. If LSU does happen to win it’ll be on a late FG. I’ll be taking the points in this week 13 college football game.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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