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Texans Home Underdogs Against the Colts in AFC South Game

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Week Nine Preview

Starting Time: Sunday, November 3rd 2013 at 8:30pm ET
Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas
Network: Watch Live on NBC

The Indianapolis Colts 5-2 (4-3 ATS) are first place in the AFC South while the Houston Texans 2-5 (1-6 ATS) are third in the division at this point in the season. The Texans have won the division the last two years, but this season the Colts are in the driver’s seat.

Latest Point Spread, Game Total and Money Line Odds

Earlier in the week this game opened up as a PK, but action on the Colts moved the line to –2.5 points for Indy. With the way these two teams have been playing halfway through the season I expected this point spread to be much higher than it currently is.

Bovada Live Odds
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Point Spread:
-2.5 (-110)
+2.5 (-110)
Money Line
-130
+110
Game Total
O44 (-110)
U44 (-110)

Why the Indianapolis Colts Will Cover on the Road

Both of these teams just had their bye week and will be well prepared for this division rivalry match-up. Andrew Luck has been far from perfect on the season, but he has completed 60.7% of his passes for 1574 passing yards, 10 TD’s and 3 INT’s (91.3 QBR).

Luck also leads the team in rushing TD’s (3) and he has gained 183 rushing yards on 28 carries. This is only his second season and he has a bright future in front of him. However, this week the Colts would be smart to focus on the run game against the Texans.

Indianapolis averages 26.7 PPG (8th) and 129.3 RYPG (9th), but the pass game hasn’t been as strong (215.4 PYPG – 21st). That won’t be a problem against Houston. The Texans defense has given up an average of 27.7 PPG (27th), 122.1 RYPG (28th) and 145.6 PYPG (1st).

Houston has been getting a lot better at stopping the pass, but they only have 3 INT’s on the season. The fact that they haven’t been able to force many turnovers is why they have a –11 turnover margin. The Colts have 8 INT’s and a turnover margin of +5 this year.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Luck had a mediocre game on the stats sheet, but as long as he doesn’t turnover the football I expect Indy to control the time of possession through the run game. Having T.Y. Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bey is great for play action as well.

How the Houston Texans Could Win This Match-Up

Houston has had a horrible season, but the offense has been moving the football fairly well. Houston has only averaged 17.4 PPG (30th), but they average 253.4 PYPG (13th) and 127.7 RYPG (10th). The problem for this team has been the turnovers (11 INT’s).

You can move the football as much as you want, but if you turn the football over you’re not going to score many points. This week it has been confirmed that Case Keenum will get the start, which I think is a great idea, as the rookie has looked good in limited action.

Keenum won’t find it easy though, as the Colts rank 13th in passing yards allowed (228.4 PYPG). The Colts only give up 18.7 PPG (8th), but they’ve been getting burned in the run game (122.3 RYPG – 29th). Expect to see a heavy dose of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Arian Foster is 7th in the NFL with 542 rushing yards (4.5 Yards per Attempt), but by his standards he has been struggling. His average per rush is fine, but the Texans need to get the football in his hands more often. This could be a breakout week for Foster.

Colts vs. Texans Predictions

This rivalry has been back and forth the last several years, but I’ll be betting on the better team in this one. There are reasons to like both teams in this match-up, but the Colts are on fire and they have more depth on the offensive side of the football.

Heyward-Bey is expected to play, but will see limited action due to an injury sustained during practice on Thursday, but the Colts will be fine. They still have a number of great playmakers and I expect the Colts to run the football on this Texans front seven anyways.

In each of the last three years the Colts and Texans have split the season series with the home team winning all six games. Houston isn’t the same team this year as in year’s past though and unless Foster has a monster game the Colts should cover this point spread.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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