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Seahawks Heavy Favorites at Home Against the Saints

2014 NFL Divisional Round: New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

Start Time: Saturday, January 11th 2014 at 4:35pm ET
Stadium: CenturyLink Field in Seattle, Washington
Station: Watch Live on FOX

The Seattle Seahawks (13-3) won the NFC West and locked up home field advantage in the playoffs. Seattle went 7-1 at home with their lone loss coming against the Cardinals (17-10) in W16. The Seahawks have now won fifteen of their last sixteen home games.

It took a last second field goal, but the New Orleans Saints beat the Eagles in the wild card round (26-24). I thought they were lucky to win the game, as Drew Brees played poorly. They now have to prepare for another road game against the best defense in the NFL.

NO @ SEA Point Spread & Over/Under

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The early opening line in this game was –9.5 points, but we’re now seeing –8 points almost across the board in favor of Seattle. This is a tough spread, but most will like the points. The over/under total is down a point from the opener and sitting at 47.5 points now.

New Orleans vs. Seattle Injury Report

It’s early in the week, so teams haven’t even started releasing injury reports yet. However, I can tell you that the Saints starting CB Keenan Lewis (Concussion) and he’s unlikely to play this week. Pierre Thomas may return this week, but there has been no word.

How the Seahawks Will Cover at Home

Russell Wilson was next to unstoppable when Seattle beat the Saints in W13 (34-7). Wilson went 22 of 30 on his passes for 310 yards and 3 TD’s. He didn’t turn the football over either. This season he finished in 7th with a 101.2 rating and he was even better at home.

The Seahawks passing offense hasn’t been a huge threat (202.2 PYPG – 26th), but Wilson has been efficient. He has completed 63.1% of his pass attempts. He has thrown 26 TD passes compared to just 9 INT’s, which is amongst the best ratio in the NFL this year.

Marshawn Lynch was 2nd in the NFL with 301 carries and he has a huge motor on him that never stops. Lynch finished in 6th place in rushing yards (1257) and he was tied in 1st in rushing touchdowns (12). Look for Lynch to have 25+ carries on Saturday.

Between Lynch and Wilson the Seahawks rank 4th in rushing yards (136.8 RYPG) while the Saints allowed 111.6 RYPG (19th) during the regular season. Last week the Saints held McCoy to 77 rushing yards on 21 carries, but that’ll be hard to replicate again.

New Orleans lost the turnover battle 2-0 (2 INT’s by Brees) against the Eagles, but it didn’t cost them the game. Seattle has 20 more takeaways than giveaways this season (1st). Their defense has the most interceptions (28) and I think Brees is in for a long night.

When you have a secondary that includes Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas it’s not hard to see why the Seahawks defense has the most interceptions this season. Seattle won the turnover battle 1-0 against NO in week 13 with the only TO being a Brees fumble.

Will This Game Go Over or Under the Total?

I’m not sure what to make of this total right now. About 70% of the early action is on the under, however, we’ve already seen a drop in the total by 1 point. I actually lean to the under 47.5 points, as both of these defenses are capable of shutting down any offense.

In December the Saints could only score 1 TD (Jimmy Graham) at CenturyLink Field. If it weren’t for an explosive 17 point 1st quarter the Saints wouldn’t have dropped 34 on the Saints defense. Despite being a public play I’m betting the under before it drops again.

Saints vs. Seahawks Divisional Playoffs Predictions

Brees went 20/30 for 250 passing yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s last week, but his run game saved him. New Orleans had 185 rushing yards, but that was against Philly. The Seahawks have only allowed 101.6 RYPG (7th) and 172 PYPG (1st) defensively during the season.

Teams are only scoring 14.4 PPG on Seattle, which is lower than any other team in the NFL. Brees looked rattled against Philly. Wait until he gets a taste of a hungry Seahawks defense playing at home where they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this match-up.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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