The San Francisco 49ers (4-2) will host the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) in an NFC West division showdown on TNF to kick-off week 7. This game is important for both teams, as both are fighting it out with Arizona for the division lead.
Last Sunday, the Seahawks beat the Patriots 24-23 due to a late 4th quarter comeback. In week 6, the 49ers had their chance at revenge after the Giants knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. Unfortunately, they laid a big goose egg at home, losing 26-3. Let’s take a look at the Seahawks vs. 49ers over/under.
Seattle vs. San Francisco Over/Under: Week 7 TNF
Early action came in on the under this week and bumped the total from 39.5 points down to 37.5 to 38 points. If you like the under, I recommend betting it now before it loses more value. With the over/under coming down to it’s current range, a lot of handicappers would recommend taking the over right now. However, it’s not just about where the line is today, our wagers still have to be based on our predictions. If our predictions are saying to take the under, we take the under.
Week 7 Seahawks vs. 49ers Over/Under Analysis
My bet on this game is under 38 (-110) at Bovada.lv because both of these teams have great defenses. SF has the #1 defensive unit in the NFL (275.8 YPG) and the Seahawks aren’t far behind, as they have the #4 ranked defense in the league (294.7 YPG). Although the 49ers gave up 26 to the Giants last week, they still rank 3rd in the league, giving up just 15.7 points per game. And the Seahawks? Oh, they rank #2 in the league, giving up just 15.5 points per game.
The San Francisco 49ers rely on RB Frank Gore and their rushing attack to score points offensively. Alex Smith is best used as a situational QB that picks up the big 3rd down conversion when it’s needed, but he isn’t a QB that can be relied on to win with his arm.
Seattle’s #1 goal on defense will be to shut down Gore and the 49ers run unit. The Seahawks rushing defense ranks #2 in the NFL, giving up just 70 RYPG and 2 rushing TD’s all season. If they can stop the run game, Alex Smith will struggle, and once he gets hit a few times he’ll start making mistakes. Last week Smith was hit a ton by the G-Men and he tossed 3 INT’s in the game. We could see something similar in this week 7 TNF game.
After being embarrassed defensively at home by the Giants last week, the 49ers D should play better against Seattle. The Seattle offense ranks 29th in total yards per game (300.7), 26th in points per game (18.3), and 31st in passing yards per game (169.7). The lone bright spot on the Seattle offense is the running game, where they rank 7th in the league with 131 yards per game. However, even though the rushing offense is gaining yards, they’ve only recorded 2 rushing TD’s this season. So, the run game is good at eating time off the clock, but not at scoring points. To make it worse, the 49ers rushing defense ranks 9th in the league giving up just 92.7 yards per game and only 2 TD’s on the season.
Just like San Francisco, the Seahawks need Marshawn Lynch and their run game to pick up yards. Russell Wilson has been hot in the clutch, but he’s been in those situations because he hasn’t been able to get much done the 1st 3 quarters of the game.
Everything points to a highly defensive, low scoring game. Neither offense is terribly effective, and both defenses are rock-solid.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Over/Under Prediction
If both defenses can shut down each others rushing attacks, this should be a very low scoring game. Neither of these defenses give up a lot of big plays, and I expect a grind it out type of win with one of these teams winning by a late field goal.
The only thing that concerns me about the under is the potential for turnovers. Smith and Wilson have been turning the ball over this year, and a couple of turnovers could cost an under bet when the total is this low. Hopefully no turnovers are returned for a TD on Thursday.
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