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Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under Betting – Week 1 NFL Picks

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons – 2014 NFL Week 1 Preview

Start Time: Sunday, September 7th 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Stadium: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
Station: FOX

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South last season, but they’re expected to regress. That means that the door is wide open for a new division winner to emerge. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will both contend for the NFC South crown this year.

Latest Betting Lines – O/U, Point Spread & Money Line

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When this line opened back in May the Falcons were –1 point home favorites, but heavy action (90%+) on NO has seen this spread cross zero and now the Saints are favored by –3 with juice. The over/under opened at 52 points and has dropped a ½ point.

What Went Wrong in Atlanta Last Season?

Atlanta finished with a 4-12 record and was one of the laughing stocks of the NFL, but it had a lot to do with injuries. Matt Ryan had to deal with injuries to Steven Jackson, Julio Jones and Roddy White for most of the season and he had a rough year because of it.

Offensively, the team will be way better as long as Jones and White stay healthy. Ryan should have more time in the pocket, as ATL went out and drafted Jake Matthews in the first round. Tony Gonzalez is gone, but this Falcons offense will be amongst the best.

Defense is another story. Last season Atlanta allowed 243.6 PYPG (21st), 135.8 RYPG (31st) and 27.7 PPG (27th). Sean Weatherspoon is out for the year again, which stings. The Falcons improved in the trenches, but the secondary and LB core have question marks.

Can the Saints Contend for the Super Bowl?

There have been a number of departures on the Saints this off-season. Darren Sproles, Will Smith, Jabari Greer, Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper are all gone as well as a few others. However, I was impressed with the Saints draft this year.

Brandin Cooks is a speedy WR that the Saints took in the first round to please Drew Brees. The biggest move that NO made was they went out and signed Jairus Byrd to a big contract. It’s scary, but this Saints defense should be improved from last season.

New Orleans allowed 194.1 PYPG (2nd), 111.6 RYPG (19th) and 19 PPG (4th). The secondary is very strong again and the run unit will be improved, as they have another year under Rob Ryan. With a healthy Brees this team could win the Super Bowl in 2015.

Why I’m Betting on the Under in NO vs. ATL

We have two of the best offenses in the NFL matching up against each other, so you’d think the over would be a lock, but I don’t see that being the case. These two teams are familiar with each other and in recent match-ups have shut each other down.

The last three H2H meetings have gone well under the total with scores of 23-13, 23-17 and 17-13. Atlanta had a lot of injuries last season, but in the first game against the Saints they were healthy and the game still stayed well under the total.

Dating back to 2009 the under is 5-0 when these two teams play each other in Atlanta. With about 75% of the action on the over I expected to see the total increase, but it has decreased a ½ point, which makes me feel even stronger about my prediction.

From what I’ve been hearing the Saints will look to utilize a power running game more often now that Sproles is gone. Cooks isn’t likely to breakout in his first regular season game and Jimmy Graham should receive plenty of double teams.

Atlanta has no run game to speak of again this year unless Devonta Freeman breaks out in his rookie year. I’m a huge fan of the Falcons pass game and even drafted Matt Ryan as my QB, but the Saints secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

I have this match-up ending 24-21 and I could see both teams winning the game. Atlanta is strong at home while the Saints have a much better defense. Either way, I expect this game to land under and I’ll gladly be being on the game total this Sunday.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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