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Ravens vs. Steelers Over/Under Analysis

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Week 7 Preview

Start Time: Sunday, October 20th 2013 at 4:25pm ET
Stadium: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Network: Watch Live on CBC

This week we have multiple division match-ups in the NFL including a highly anticipated AFC North game. The Pittsburgh Steelers 1-4 host the Baltimore Ravens 3-3 at Heinz Field. If the Steelers want to have a shot at the playoffs they need to win this game at home.

I personally expect this game to be very close just like the majority of past H2H meetings between these two rivals. Instead of trying to predict who will cover the point spread I’ve decided to provide my betting analysis on the over/under market in this game.

Latest Week 7 Steelers vs. Ravens Game Total

Bovada Live Odds
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total
O41 (-110)
U41 (-110)

The game total opened up at over/under 40 points between these two fierce division rivals, but with most of the action being bet on over in this match-up we’ve seen the total creep up to 41 points. I’d lock in O41 if you agree with my analysis on the game below.

Why I’m Betting on the Over in Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

Baltimore has an over/under record of 2-4 on the season, but both games that went over the total were on the road. Pittsburgh has been an under team up to this point as well with an O/U record of 2-3, however, these two teams are close to breaking out.

The Ravens offense has been stagnant because they can’t seem to get the run game moving along yet. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce are both averaging 2.8 yards per rush. The two RB’s have combined for just 403 rushing yards and 5 rushing TD’s on 144 carries.

That isn’t going to cut it, especially for a team that’s known to run the football effectively. Currently the Ravens have the 27th ranked run offense (72.7 RYPG), but they should improve on their season average against the Steelers, as they allow 114.8 RYPG (22nd).

Rice and Pierce both have to get going this week in order to open up the pass game for Joe Flacco. Baltimore has averaged 263 PYPG (12th), but they’re coming up against one of the best passing defenses in the league. The Steelers only allow 196 PYPG (4th).

Pittsburgh should have success in the passing game this week as well, which is why I like the over. The Steelers average 277.6 PYPG (7th) and Big Ben is averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens are allowing 254.3 PYPG (17th) and that’ll increase this week.

One thing that worries me about the Steelers passing game is the fact that Big Ben has been sacked 19X already. The Ravens have 22 sacks thanks in large part to the 7 sacks that Terrell Suggs has. Without Pouncey pass protection has been at a premium in Pitts.

Baltimore likes to bring a lot of pressure, but that opens up short passes across the field that can turn into big gains. Big Ben has to be quick in his progressions and find the open receiver quickly. When betting the over you can’t afford stalled drives due to sacks.

Both teams have been turning the football over a lot as well this season. Pittsburgh has averaged 2.2 giveaways per game (27th) and Baltimore has averaged 1.8 giveaways per game (23rd). If each team can get a couple turnovers this game should sail over the total.

Last year these two teams played twice and they split the series with both teams winning on the road. Baltimore won the 1st game 13-10 and the Steelers won the 2nd game 23-20. Leftwich played in the Steelers loss and Batch played in the Steelers win last year.

With Big Ben moving the offense better than those two ever could I expect a higher scoring game. There are numerous over/under trends in this match-up because the teams play so often, but you can paint a nice picture on the over or under with trends.

That’s why I don’t like trends and rarely post about them. In this game the over is 4-1 in the L5 games and if you want to go way back the over is 7-2-1 in the L10 games played at Heinz Field. I expect both of these teams to eclipse 21+ points by the 4th quarter.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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