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Ravens vs. Patriots Over/Under

The Patriots have been the most profitable over team in the NFL this year, with an O/U record of 12-5. The Ravens are 9-7-1 on the over/under, so it makes sense that the public has been betting the over. The Ravens vs. Patriots over/under opened at 50.5 and is currently at 51.5 to 52 at most sportsbooks.

Latest BAL vs. NE Over/Under Odds

Although the total opened at 50.5 points, it wasn’t high enough to deter over backers. At this point (Saturday, 2:00pm ET), I don’t think the total is done moving. As more public money comes in, it’s very possible we’ll see the over/under come up another half point or so. So, if you like the over, I recommend getting your bets in now. If you like the under, you might wait until later today or even tomorrow.

My Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at the JustBet Sportsbook

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Over/Under
o52 (-105) / u52 (-115)
o51.5 (-110) / u51.5 (-110)

BAL Ravens vs. NE Patriots Over/Under Betting Analysis

New England’s offense is by far the most lethal in the NFL. It doesn’t take long for Tom Brady to pick apart a defense in the pass game with a variety of pass routes to Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd and his RB’s.

This year the Pats have averaged 34.8 PPG, which is easily the best in the NFL. New England scored 41 points on the Texans last week, and by the numbers the Texans had a better defense than the Ravens this year. With that said, Baltimore did deal with a lot of injuries to players who are now back on the field.

Baltimore allowed 21.5 PPG (12th) this year, but they rank 17th against the pass (228.1 PYPG) and 20th against the rush (122.8 RYPG). This isn’t good news against an offense that gained 344 passing yards and 122 rushing yards last week against the Texans.

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Denver put up 35 points on the Ravens, but that was because special teams allowed 2 TD’s. The defense allowed 3 TD’s at Mile High and it could have been more if the Broncos didn’t turn the football over so much. Does anyone think NE will struggle to score points? I heard there was a guy, but it’s yet to be confirmed.

If the Patriots can even score their season average of roughly 35 points, that would mean the Ravens would only need 17 to send the game over the total of 51.5 pts. So far in the playoffs, the Ravens have scored 24 against Indy and 38 against Denver.

Joe Flacco has thrown for 613 passing yards, 5 TD’s and 0 INT’s in the Ravens playoff games, and he has a QB rating of 120. Flacco also threw for 382 passing yards when the Ravens beat the Patriots 31-30 in week 3, so he should have some success through the air.

Baltimore has rushed for over 300 yards in the playoffs already, but I don’t think Rice will have a great game. The Pats O-line is huge, with massive Vince Wilfork clogging up the middle. As further proof, they did a good job limiting Arian Foster to fewer than 100 rushing yards last week.

2013 AFC Conference Championship Breakout Performers

Flacco is playing well and the two big WR’s on the Ravens need to continue to be consistent. Boldin is the #1 target for Flacco and he already has 11 playoff receptions for 216 receiving yards (19.6 YPC) and 1 TD.

Torrey Smith has big game potential, which was evident again last week. After his breakout performance last week, Smith now has 2 TD’s and 129 receiving yards on just 5 catches. Smith is great in the open field and when he’s on his game his hands are like glue. These guys will contribute to the over.

Gronkowski was expected to play in the playoffs, but he re-injured himself in the 1st quarter against Houston. The pressure was put on Hernandez and he did great. Welker and Hernandez combined for 14 receptions for 216 receiving yards.

Neither player scored a TD, but that brings me to my other breakout player. Shane Vereen won a lot of people daily fantasy pools last week, as he rushed the football for 41 rushing yards and 1 TD. He also had 5 receptions for 83 receiving yards and 2 TD’s.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Over/Under Pick

I don’t think there is a defense in the NFL that could stop Brady right now. The over is 7-2 at Foxborough this season and the Pats have scored over 30+ points at home on six occasions already. NE’s secondary is still weak and will be beat a few times.

This should be a high scoring game and I expect the final score to be in the 35-24 range. Flacco will throw for a couple TD’s, but the Ravens rush game will struggle to get going. New England isn’t a team that worries about running up the score. Even if they have a big lead late in the game, they’ll continue to go for TD’s. I normally don’t bet over totals this high, but in this game, I think it’s the only way to go.

Related Article:

Ravens vs. Patriots Betting Line

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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