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Ravens vs. Patriots Betting Lines

What: 2012-13 AFC Conference Championship Game
Who: Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
When: 6:30pm ET. Sunday, January 20, 2013
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
TV: CBS

In the AFC Conference Championship we have a rematch from last season. The New England Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens 23-20 last year, although the Ravens had a chance to tie the game with 11 seconds left. Field goal kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32 yarder, ending Baltimore’s chances to take the game into OT.

In week 3, the Ravens beat the Patriots 31-30 in Baltimore. Joe Flacco threw for 382 yards and Ray Rice gained 101 yards on the ground. The Patriots defense has improved since then, so we can’t take too much from that week 3 matchup. Below are the latest Ravens vs. Patriots betting lines for the 2012-13 AFC Conference Championship game.

Ravens vs. Patriots Betting Lines: Spread, Money Line & O/U

The odds in this game are all over the place right now. New England opened as -10 favorites, and although they’re still -10 at Bovada you can get +130 now. Another option is Patriots -8 (-110) at JustBet.

The game total has gone up from the open of 50.5 points to 51.5 at both of these US-friendly sportsbooks. Bovada and JustBet accept Visa credit & debit cards for funding accounts.

My Pick: Patriots -8 (-110) at the JustBet Sportsbook

Bovada.lv
US Friendly
JustBet.cx
US Friendly
Spread
Money
Spread
Money
Ravens
Patriots
+10 (-150)
-10 (+130)
+280
-360
+8 (-110)
-8 (-110)
+305
-370
Over/Under
o52 (-105) / u52 (-115)
o51.5 (-110) / u51.5 (-110)

BAL vs. NE Basic Stats

• Points Scored Per Game: Ravens 24.9 PPG (10th) vs. Patriots 34.8 PPG (1st)

• Points Allowed Per Game: Ravens 21.5 PPG (12th) vs. Patriots 20.7 PPG (9th)

• Yards Per Game (Offense): Ravens 352.5 YPG (16th) vs. Patriots 427.9 YPG (1st)

• Yards Per Game (Defense): Ravens 350.9 YPG (17th) vs. Patriots 373.2 YPG (25th)

• Turnover Margin Per Game: Ravens +0.6 (8th) vs. Patriots +1.5 (1st)

• Sacks Per Game: Ravens 2.4 (11th) vs. Patriots 2.2 (19th)

Ravens/Patriots Game & Betting Analysis

The Patriots come in as huge favorites, meaning we have to give up a lot of points on them. The Ravens/Patriots betting lines haven’t been kind to Baltimore, but nearly 70% of the betting public is taking them on the point spread. This has tightened up the spread, meaning value is being lost. Although the Patriots -8 might not sound great, that’s where the value seems to be right now.

Last weekend, the Ravens beat the Broncos 38-35 at Mile High in a wild game full of mistakes. Baltimore was +2 in the TO battle (3-1) against the Broncos, but Flacco did have a fumble. Flacco played well though, throwing for 331 yards and 3 TD’s.

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New England looked next to perfect last week in their 41-28 win over the Texans. Tom Brady threw for 344 passing yards and 3 TD’s, plus the offense didn’t turn the football over once. Wes Welker stepped up to lead the Pats with 8 receptions for 131 receiving yards.

Baltimore and Houston are similar in the way they run their offense. The Ravens pounded the football 39 times last week including 30 carries by Rice for 131 rushing yards and 1 TD. NE ranks 9th against the rush (101.9 RYPG) and held Arian Foster to 90 yards.

For Baltimore to keep this game close they need Flacco to have another good game. Flacco was good last week, but the coverage on his TD passes was horrible, and I don’t expect the Patriots secondary to struggle like the Broncos secondary did.

The Patriots have a balanced attack, but with the way Brady is playing expect him to test the Ravens secondary early. Manning had 290 passing yards on the Ravens, but he also threw 2 INT’s. Baltimore gives up an average 228.1 PYPG (17th) and Brady will be fine. Historically, Tom Brady doesn’t perform as well against the Ravens as he does just about every other team in the league. However, his experience and somewhat poor performances against them should serve as extra motivation.

On the injury front, the biggest news is that Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the season after going down early against Houston. Gronks wasn’t needed against Houston, as Hernandez stepped up with 6 receptions for 85 receiving yards as Brady’s #2 target.

I expect NE to keep Rice under 100 rushing yards in this match-up and that’ll put more pressure on Flacco. Boldin and Smith have both stepped up in the playoffs. They’ve combined for 16 receptions for 316 receiving yards and 3 TD’s in two games.

The Patriots need to shut down the Ravens deep ball because after last week you can bet Flacco will test them early. With the best TO margin in the NFL, the Pats always seem to create turnovers – and I think we’ll see a couple this Sunday.

Baltimore vs. New England Point Spread

– Best Ravens Point Spread: Baltimore +10 (-150) at Bovada, or +8 (-110) at JustBet
– Best Patriots Point Spread: New England -8 (-110) at JustBet, or -10 (+130) at Bovada

Recent matchups suggest that this should be a very close game, but I’m not sold on that idea. New England has been running through teams, and if it weren’t or a few mistakes plus terrible pass coverage, the Broncos would have beaten Baltimore handily.

JustBet is still offering -8 on the Patriots and I think that’s good value with this game being played in Foxborough. It will be close early on, but the Patriots will pull away like they did against the Texans. Baltimore is on B2B road games and they’re just 5-4 on the road.

After some bouncing around early in the week, the Ravens vs. Patriots betting lines seem to be stabilizing. Although the Ravens have gotten most of the action so far, it’ll be interesting to see what happens now that the spread is 8. I doubt we’ll see it come down to 7, but 7.5 is possible.

Ravens vs. Patriots Money Line

– Best Ravens Money Line: Baltimore +305 at JustBet

– Best Patriots Money Line: New England -360 at Bovada

I’m not betting the Ravens vs. Patriots money line, as there’s no value taking the Patriots. Baltimore backers can bet the Ravens money line of +305 at JustBet, but I expect NE to win SU. Beating the Patriots at home early in the season is one thing, but beating them on the road in the conference championship is another.

The Ravens have been prone to mistakes in the playoffs. Flacco has had his struggles, special teams is having trouble, and even Ray Rice struggled against the Colts. I just don’t see any glaring problems on the Patriots right now, meaning I don’t see value on the Ravens money line.

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This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.


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