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PSG v Chelsea tips – Champions League round of 16 betting

PSG v Chelsea Betting Tips - Round of 16Start: Tuesday, February 17th 2015 at 1:45pm ET
Location: Parc des Princes in Paris, France

CHELSEA have drawn a tough opponent in the UEFA Champions League round of 16, as they get set to play a familiar foe – PSG.

The first leg is this Tuesday in Paris while the second leg is March 11th 2015 at Stamford Bridge.

These teams know each other well. It was just last year that Chelsea eliminated PSG in the quarterfinals in spectacular fashion. The Parisians won the 1st leg at Parc des Princes 3-1 last year, but they followed that up with a 2-0 loss in the 2nd leg. Chelsea advanced on away goals although they were trounced in the next round against Atletico Madrid (3-1 Aggregate).

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PSG v Chelsea odds to qualify

I’m surprised that the odds on Chelsea to advance aren’t worse. The Blues are on top of the Premier League table with 59 points (18-5-2) – seven points clear of Manchester City.

PSG is in 3rd place on the Ligue 1 table with 49 points (13-10-2) – one point back of 1st.

Chelsea went undefeated during the group stage (4-2-0) and won Group G. The Blues scored 17 goals while conceding 3 goals and they looked great in the process. PSG (4-1-1) finished 2nd in Group F and like always scoring (10) was a premium for the French side.

The Red and Blues are in trouble and I’ll gladly bet on Chelsea to advance at –225 odds. If Chelsea can win or draw in Paris and head home they’ll have this round basically locked up.

Chelsea have been next to unstoppable when playing at Stamford Bridge.

PSG vs. Chelsea match preview

I expect most of the fireworks to take place at Stamford Bridge next month and my expectations for this match aren’t high. First off, Chelsea have never played well against French teams. In twelve matches against French sides they have a 5-3-4 record.

On the other side of the coin – PSG only have two wins in nine matches against English teams. One thing that PSG have in its favor is they haven’t lost at home this campaign in all competitions (17 Games).

Diego Costa has served his suspension and will start for the Blues in Paris.

That’s great news, as the Blues haven’t looked nearly as strong upfront with Loic Remy or Didier Drogba in the line-up. Chelsea were the highest scoring team during the group stage and ten players netted at least one goal, but Costa is still looking for his first goal.

David Luiz has to be pumped up to play against his old team. Luiz has one goal in the Champions League and he’d love nothing more than to score in this match.

While Luiz is unlikely to score – the Parisians need Edinson Cavani and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to wreak havoc upfront. Cavani leads the team with 16 goals in all competitions. Ibrahimovic has netted 15 goals – two of which came during the group stage.

The problem with PSG is that outside of Cavani and Ibrahimovic the team has limited scoring threats. Chelsea have depth and they have one of the best midfields in the world. Eden Hazard is playing great and Willian is coming off his best match of the season.

Chelsea v PSG best bets

I have two bets on the 1st leg match. I’m confident that the match will stay under 2.5 goals. Chelsea may have scored a lot during the group stage, but they haven’t forgotten about the 3-1 loss last year and Jose Mourinho will ensure that doesn’t happen again.

PSG have only conceded 7 goals during the group stage and they know they have to be tough on the back line to have any chance to qualify. I expect both teams to have a feeling out process early on and it wouldn’t surprise me if the match ended in a nil-nil draw.

There is also value on the draw in what should be a close match throughout. Chelsea would be fine with an away draw, as they know they have a big edge at Stamford Bridge. PSG will want to win at home, but they can’t allow Chelsea to score multiple away goals.

Anytime goalscorer predictions

As long as Costa plays in the match I’ll be betting on him in the anytime goalscorer market. If Costa doesn’t end up playing than I may place a ½ unit bet on there being “NO” goalscorer at 8/1 odds. Those are big odds for a match that’ll be low scoring.

If you expect PSG to win at home then you’ll want to look to Cavani (+450) or Ibrahimovic (+350) in the first goalscorer market at Bovada. Cavani is the best option on PSG, as he leads the team with five goals in Champions League play.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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