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PGA Championship Preview and Friday-Saturday Winning Bets

Australia(5 wins) @ United States(78 wins)

  • Where: Quail Hollow Club. Charlotte, NC
  • When: August 10, 2017 7:00 am EST
  • Moneyline: Rory McIlroy (+700), Jordan Spieth (+800), Hideki Matsuyama (+1100), Dustin Johnson (+1200), Rickie Fowler (+1600), John Rahm (+2500), Brooks Koepka (+2500), Jason Day (+2800), Sergio Garcia (+4000), Phil Mickelson (+5500)

The golf media doesn’t always have thrilling, bombshell reporting to do, but this weekend’s lead story was a doozy – the PGA Championship could be moved to May as early as 2018. Big Jack and other big-shots of the sport have lobbied for a spring version of the PGA for many decades, and there’s no doubt that playing the fine old championship in May would wake up sleeping segments of the professional golf fan base.

But it’s not altogether great news for gamblers.

The Masters, the opening major of the season, is fraught with problems in finding bet value. Since only the previous year’s statistics can be used to determine a favorite, the World #1 or #2 gets the most action. In June, simply betting on Augusta’s winner to prevail doesn’t usually work – Sergio Garcia didn’t contend in 2017 after his breakthrough Green Jacket win. The British Open, of course, is a unique animal and never easy to get a feel for.

At the PGA – in August anyway – the bettor is happy to have a three-major “profile” of how each player on the board has performed on golf’s biggest stages in the past few months. That’s a welcome relief following so much guesswork.

Heck, even at MSB we have only one nice links prediction to hang our hat on in ’17 – Ernie Els on a three-ball bet at the U.S. Open at 6/1 odds. Given a barely-break-even season’s record on our part, we’ll eschew picking a winner and instead offer a capsule preview of each favorite.

But scroll down for a special tip on three-ball bets and tournament match-ups for the PGA at Quail Hollow, explaining a system that should keep bettors consistently on the take.

2017 PGA Championship odds-on favorites

Rory McIlroy (+700) – The four-time major champion is striping it with the driver. For all of the slogans like “drive for show, putt for dough,” at this level accurate and long drives are a must. Rory must step it up on the greens to win this week, however.

Jordan Spieth (+800) – Jordan shocked and awed the golf world with his amazing blitz past Matt Kuchar to win the 2017 British Open. He’s got a career grand slam to snag, and a hot putter. Can he make up for a lack of over-powering length on the 7,700-yard Quail Hollow layout?

Hideki Matsuyama (+1100) – Driving it far and straight enough will be the crux of the matter for Hideki too, but he just won at Bridgestone and is coming in hot-as-lava.

Dustin Johnson (+1200) – These odds could have value. The Cheetah is being whispered about in ways that imply he lost something after a freak Masters injury – in reality he’s just working out his putting. Can you imagine having a PGA Championship on a near-8000 yard course ten times & D.J. not winning once?

Rickie Fowler (+1600) – Fowler has won at Quail Hollow before, and certainly can boast of a solid season. But his short game left him too far out of the pack at the British. With long approach shots and gnarly rough this week, those skills will be tested again.

MSB’s winning system for Three-Ball betting

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As the week progresses, try to make a few three-ball, or tournament match-up bets on youth vs. aging veteran groups. Typically, a “ceremonial” golfer such as an old club pro (there are lots in the PGA field, after all, it’s their tournament) can have a terrific round on Thursday and beat long betting odds. Legends of the game such as Watson and Nicklaus proved unable to win a major in their 50s, but they both came shockingly close.

On single-round three-ball bets on Thursday and Friday, look for players who are likely too old to win but can still play when fresh as daisies in Round 1. Bovada gives Phil Mickelson (+150) odds to beat Jason Dufner and Jimmy Walker, who hasn’t had many “good times” at majors in ’17, on Thursday.

The weekend is when the kids usually have an advantage, due to stronger stamina and better nerves on the green. If Mickelson jumps out to a lead in his 72 hole match-up with Daniel Berger, the latter’s odds will grow long. But unless Phil is so close to the lead that his champion’s instinct can take over, that puts value on Berger…as an aging Phil is less likely to sustain a Friday or Saturday charge.

Play for wins, not drama

Outright-winner bets feel amazing when it’s late Sunday afternoon and your guy has a chance. But for a better “handicap,” sometimes it helps to peruse the three-ball and match-up group board for tasty odds on excellent golfers. Pick grizzled vets on Thursday and yet-unproven stars on the weekend for a steadier cash flow.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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