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Patriots vs. Falcons Money Line

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview

Time: Sunday, September 29th 2013 at 8:30pm ET
Where: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
Watch: NBC

The New England Patriots 3-0 (2-1 ATS) remain undefeated, but they have a lot of question marks. They now have a real test ahead of them, as they travel to Georgia to take on the Atlanta Falcons 1-2 (1-2 ATS) who are one of the best home teams in the NFL.

Week 4 Falcons vs. Patriots ML Odds

The Falcons are –125 money line favorites at home against the Patriots (+105). I was surprised that the bookmakers have this game as basically a pickem (-1/+1) right now. Atlanta is struggling, but they’re still 1-0 ATS at home after beating the Rams in week 2.

Bovada Live Odds
New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread:
+1 (-110)
-1 (-110)
Money Line
+105
-125
Game Total
O50 (-110)
U50 (-110)

How Good Are the Falcons at Home

Atlanta is 14-3 SU during the regular season since the start of the 2011 season. Their record ATS at home isn’t as good (9-6-2), but a lot of the time they were big favorites. Both teams are banged up heading into this game, so let’s take a look at the injury report.

The Patriots will be without Shane Vereen plus Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are both questionable still. Steven Jackson is ruled out of this game for the Falcons along with Sean Weatherspoon. Sam Baker and Robert McClain are both questionable as well.

The Falcons have been up by 10+ points in each of their first three games, but they’ve lost two games already. The defense isn’t the strong point on the Falcons, but the offense has been guilty of taking the pressure off the opposing defense after building a lead.

Biggest Battles on the Field in This Match-Up

Matt Ryan has to keep this high-powered offense running for the entire game regardless of their lead. Ryan has a QB rating of 100.4 and he has completed 68.1% of his passes (81/119) for 909 yards, 6 TD’s and 2 INT’s. However, he needs more passing attempts.

Julio Jones is by far the best WR on the team, as he already has 27 receptions for 373 yards and 2 TD’s. Jones can match-up man to man with anyone downfield and win the battle. The Pats have allowed 188.3 PYPG (6th), but they have played weaker offenses.

New England has played against two rookie QB’s (Manuel & Smith) and Josh Freeman up to this point. Now the secondary, which had problems last season will be tested against a legitimate passing offense. This battle will help decide who wins the game.

Atlanta’s weakness has been their defense, which has allowed 296 PYPG (25th) and 24.7 PPG (20th). They’ve been stout upfront and only allow 79 RYPG (5th), but Tom Brady is going to have a chance to find open WR’s. The question is will they catch or drop them?

The Pats have dropped a lot of passes to start the season. It’s likely that Julian Edelman will get a lot of targets from Brady, but it’ll be important that Dobson and Thompkins contribute. I think the Pats will have success through the air, but will it be enough?

The Patriots have a +3 turnover margin, as they have turned the football over 4 times and have 7 takeaways. The Patriots have been fortunate to have a lot of takeaways, but the Falcons only have 4 turnovers this season. They also have 4 takeaways.

New England has set-up some short fields to put up points, but against Atlanta I can’t see that happening on the road. I expect both teams to be limited to 1 turnover apiece and this game will come down to what passing offense can perform the best on Sunday.

New England vs. Atlanta Picks

Both rushing defenses are tough to run against and I don’t think either team will gain much on the ground. Steven Ridley hasn’t been a threat in the passing game since Vereen went out, but the Falcons have two RB’s that can catch the football out of the backfield.

Jason Snelling (10 Catches for 116 Yards & 1 TD) and Jacquizz Rodgers (7 Catches for 38 Yards) can both catch the football and they’ll find open space, as the secondary will be more concerned about covering Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.

At the end of the day the Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL when playing at home. The Pats aren’t the same team that they once were. Expect the Falcons to get out to an early lead and hang on at home to win the game and move to 2-2 on the year.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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