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Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under Betting Lines and Tips

New England Patriots(11–2) @ Denver Broncos(8–5)

  • Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, Colorado
  • When: December 18, 2016 4:25 pm EST
  • Spread: Patriots -3 (-110) vs. Broncos +3 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Patriots (-180) vs. Broncos (+150)
  • Over / Under: Over 44 (-110) vs. Under 44 (-110)

Two perennial contenders in the AFC face off this Sunday for a Week 15 rematch of last year’s conference championship. That matchup turned out to be the last ever edition of Manning vs. Brady, but even without the Future Hall of Fame quarterback, it’s always exciting when the New England Patriots fly to Colorado and take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High.

The Patriots come into town with the top seed in the AFC and a first round playoff bye all but secured, but with only a one-game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs, New England doesn’t have the luxury of taking their foot off the gas just yet.

The Broncos, on the other hand, do not yet have a playoff berth locked up, currently hanging on to the 6th seed Wild Card playoff berth by a shoestring. The Broncos have the same record as the Miami Dolphins, also in the hunt for the Wild Card.

The drive that both of these two teams have to keep rolling into the postseason should provide a playoff atmosphere in mile-high stadium that will make this Week 15 game reminiscent of last year’s AFC Championship matchup. Let’s take a look at both teams individually and see where there might be value for interested parties.

Business as usual for the New England Patriots

Patriots at Broncos Game Total BetThe Pats are in the driver’s seat this December, as usual, having won at least 11 games in 12 of the last 17 seasons, since drafting star quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. This season, New England is already at 11 wins with 3 games left to be played, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they could run the slate.

If the Patriots do end up winning out, that would put them at 14–2 for the season, and give Tom Brady the record of 11–1 as the starter, after missing the first four games due to a suspension. With Brady’s incredible numbers and the recent backpedaling of the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive rookies, this success could propel Brady into the favorite spot for the NFL Most Valuable Player Award. Brady is currently listed at +275 for the MVP at the Bovada sportsbook, so it may be time to grab those odds while they are still above 2-to-1.

Brady’s play was particularly impressive in their home win over the Baltimore Ravens for two reasons: 1) the Ravens, like the Broncos, have a top-ranked defense. 2) Since the loss of star tight end Rob Gronkowski and now the additional loss of wide receiver Danny Amendola, Brady has had to get the ball to rookie receivers and make do with little.

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots are currently the Super Bowl LI favorites in the eyes of the gambling public (currently listed at +225 at the Bovada sportsbook): there’s little doubt that the Patriots will be as sharp as ever heading into the postseason.

Denver Broncos struggling to get their offense together

The Broncos started off the season with the surprising choice of second-year Northwestern quarterback Trevor Siemian to replace retiring Future-Hall of Fame quarterback and aspiring commercial jingle artist Peyton Manning.

Despite a few ups and downs throughout the season, though, Siemian had been rock solid for a rookie, throwing 16 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions, despite getting sacked 27 times.

So Siemian hasn’t been the problem with the Broncos offense over the last few weeks; rather it has been the injuries that have jinxed the Broncos run game, so important to keep defenses from teeing off against the first-year starter. After running back C. J. Anderson tore his meniscus and fullback Andy Janovich had surgery on his ankle, the backfield has started to feel pretty light.

Additionally, the sprained left foot of Siemian limited his mobility, keeping the bootlegs and quarterback draws that had been so effective out of the playbook for last week’s loss against the Titans. Without the run game, the Broncos may have difficulty scoring points going forward, making an argument for the under in this matchup against the Pats.

Nonetheless, though, with a bruising defense and a well-coached special teams, the Broncos can hang around with anyone, and if they can make it to the playoffs will provide interesting matchups.

Broncos vs Patriots Week 15 O/U picks

I predict a tightly controlled game that ends up at 21–17 in favor of the New England Patriots. With that being said, I advise wagering 1-unit on under 44 points (-110) at Bovada.

If the Broncos can’t run the ball, there’s a chance that the Patriots will just dominate the time of possession, and with that much time Tom Brady will pick apart any defense.

However, the Patriots are certainly light on personnel, and in the past when Bill Belichick is forced to get creative with his packages, he has difficulty doing it twice in a row after the opponent has seen some of the new tricks on film.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.


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