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Patriots Huge Favorites Over Jets on TNF in Week 7

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Preview – NFL Week 7

When: Thursday, October 16th 2014 at 8:30pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough
Watch: CBS

The New England Patriots 4-2 (3-3 ATS) are winners of two consecutive games over the Bengals (43-17) and Bills (37-22). They’re at home on Thursday night football this week against the New York Jets 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS) who has been terrible for bettors all year.

Latest Point Spread & Over/Under Lines

Bet on NFL Week 7 action at the Bovada Sportsbook (US Bettors Only).

This line opened at –9 in favor of the Patriots and has already moved to –9.5 at most shops. This line is likely to jump to –10 before kick-off on Thursday night. The over/under has dropped a full point from the opening line of O/U 47 despite most action on the over.

Who Will Win This Battle of the AFC East?

New England has taken control of the AFC East with two consecutive wins and is the team to beat in the division. This will be the first divisional game for the Jets and they’d like to pick up a huge win, but this team simply doesn’t make enough plays on offense.

Tom Brady has started to play much better the last two weeks. Brady threw for 292 passing yards and 2 TD’s against the Bengals. He played even better last week, as Brady threw for 361 passing yards and 4 TD’s. He didn’t have an INT in those two games either.

Rob Gronkowski had a combined 13 receptions for 194 receiving yards and 1 TD the last two weeks. It took Gronks a few weeks to become comfortable, but he looks 100% healthy. He’s impossible to cover because his size allows him to block out the defender.

On paper the Patriots offense averages 26.7 PPG (11th), 239.2 PYPG (15th) and 110.0 RYPG (18th). Those numbers are a bit misleading because if you take away week 3 and 4 from the stats the Patriots would rank a lot better in each of the three categories.

I thought the Jets defense played great against the Broncos, but until the offense improves this team is in trouble. The Jets defense is allowing 235.0 PYPG (15th) and 92.2 RYPG (8th), but because of short fields they’re giving up 26.3 PPG (25th) to opposing offenses.

The Patriots will have success passing the football on the Jets secondary. Stevan Ridley is going to struggle to find running room, so it’ll come down to Brady. If the Jets wants to keep this game close than they’re going to need to put a lot of pressure on Brady.

Geno Smith has been a disappointment again this season. He has only completed 57.1% of his pass attempts for 1139 yards, 6 TD’s and 7 INT’s. The Jets offense as a whole is averaging just 16.0 PPG (30th), 182.2 PYPG (32nd) and 121.2 RYPG (12th).

The Jets offense will need to be able to establish the run game to have any success in this match-up. The Patriots defense is strong, as they only allow 21.5 PPG (11th) and 208.5 PYPG (4th), but they do have a bit of a weakness stopping the run (111.0 RYPG – 14th).

Chris Ivory has outplayed Chris Johnson up to this point and he could have success on the Pats run defense, but the problem with the Jets is they can’t pass and that allows opposing defenses to stack the box and focus on stopping the run game.

Jets vs. Patriots Predictions

The Patriots had won the last five H2H meetings prior to losing at the end of last season on the road to the Jets. Both of the games were settled by a FG last season. I’d wait until later in the week to see if you can get +10 on the Jets, as I expect we will.

It’s hard to bet on the Jets after they blew covering the spread against the Broncos with a late pick six, but the defense played great and they always seem to play well against the Patriots. NE will win at home, but they won’t be able to cover such a big spread.

I expect most of the action to be on the Patriots, as they’ve won by double digits the last two weeks and have looked strong in doing so, but that’s when they’ll fall back to earth and play a poor game where they struggle to beat the Jets in Foxborough.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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