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Packers vs. Lions Week 13 Money Line and Over/Under Picks

by —November 30, 2015 in All Sports, NFL

Packers vs. Lions NFL Week 13 PicksGreen Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (TNF)

When: Thursday, December 3rd 2015 at 8:25pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Watch: CBS & NFL Network

IT’S a little late, but the Detroit Lions (4-7) have won three games in a row. There’s an outside shot the Lions could still make the playoffs out of the NFC North, but they’ll need to beat the Green Bay Packers (7-4) on TNF. Neither team is dealing with a short week, as both teams played last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day.

These two teams just played each other in week ten and the Lions won at Lambeau (18-16). Detroit have now won three of the last four head-to-head match-ups against the Packers.

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Packers at Lions betting lines

Here are the opening betting lines in GB at DET.

I expect the point spread to drop slightly in this game before kick-off, as the Packers have been struggling and the public will start to believe in the Packers. The over/under is high to me, but could move either way.

DET and GB stats pack

Green Bay have the better offense, but the Lions defense has been progressing and playing better. Detroit are one of the best passing teams in the NFL too and the Packers may have trouble shutting Calvin Johnson down.

Why the Lions will beat the Packers in week 13

Green Bay started the season explosively on offense, but that hasn’t been the case lately. Since their bye (W7) – the Packers have failed to score 20+ points in three of five games. That won’t get it done in the NFL. It’s clear GB are missing Jordy Nelson. Randall Cobb has been inconsistent as a WR1 and the run game has also suffered.

The Packers rank inside of the top ten in points against, but they allow a lot of yardage. Detroit can move the football through the air well, especially with Johnson playing so well. Johnson has had 80+ receiving yards in each of the Lions last six games. He’s coming off of a 3 TD performance against the Eagles in week twelve.

Detroit bent, but didn’t break, in the first H2H game a few weeks ago. They completely shutdown the rushing game, but Rodgers threw for 333 passing yards and 2 TDs. Another similar output would suit the Lions fine. As long as the Lions keep the Packers below 20 points again, they’ll end up winning this game SU.

Another thing the Lions have to avoid are turnovers. Matthew Stafford had an interception against GB last time out, but that was the only turnover. I expect the public to bet on the Packers money line and point spread, but I’m jumping on the +160 now. The Packers just lost to the Bears (17-13) and this offense can’t seem to click.

Packers vs. Lions game total prediction

I love the under in this one. Nine of the last thirteen H2H games have had 47 points or less. When division rivals play each other, this is often what happens. They know each other so well that the defenses have a slight edge and most of the match-ups end up going under the total. I’m also surprised the bookies set the total so high.

Detroit know they only stand a chance if they don’t allow the Packers to turn this into a shootout. Since a week nine bye – the Lions have only allowed an average of 14.3 PPG against GB, OAK and PHI. Those are teams that can put up points, so the Lions defense has definitely been able to turn a corner.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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