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Packers vs Eagles Week 12 MNF Over/Under Betting Odds

Green Bay Packers(4–6) @ Philadelphia Eagles(5–5)

  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • When: November 28, 2016 8:30 pm EST
  • Spread: Packers +3.5 (-110) vs. Eagles -3.5 (-11)
  • Moneyline: Packers +142 vs. Eagles -169
  • Over / Under: Over 47.5 (-110) vs. Under 47.5 (-110)

Monday Night Football in Week 12 features two teams trying desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive, despite having two strong contenders above them in their respective divisions. It’s the Green Bay Packers vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.

As per usual, the Packers were slated by many as a Super Bowl favorite before the start of the 2016/17 season. However, due largely to what can only be described as an avalanche of injuries, the Packers have lost 4 straight games for the first time since 2008, Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter.

On the other side of the ball are the Philadelphia Eagles, who started the season hot with stellar play from rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. They have since cooled, and currently sit in last place in the surprisingly strong NFC East, though a playoff run is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

Let’s take a look at each of these two teams more in depth, and see if we can find some value.

Packers Running Out of Warm Bodies

Packers Week 12 Due to a very strong start to the season, the Packers total season statistics actually look pretty good. However, a closer look at their recent 4-game skid reveals a historically terrible stretch of football. And the problem is no longer on the offense.

Despite being without star running back Eddie Lacy, the Green Bay offense is now healthy and strong. Last week against the stout Redskins defense, returning starters Jared Cook (TE) and James Starks (RB) combined for 176 total yards and 2 TDs. Meanwhile, all-pro WR Jordy Nelson – who leads the league in touchdowns – caught another one last week, and supporting cast members Randall Cobb and Davante Adams each made splash plays.

Furthermore, the Cheeseheads picked up Seattle leading rusher Christine Michael last week off waivers after his surprise release and will have him suited up in Philadelphia, though it is uncertain how big of a role he will play after only 10 days spent in the playbook.

With a future hall of fame quarterback in his prime surrounded by a talented supporting cast, the question lingers: How in the world could a pre-season Super Bowl favorite lose four straight games while scoring at least 24 points in each of those games?

Despite what the gossip columns would have you believe, the answer does not lie in Aaron Rodgers’ personal life or leadership ability. The simple explanation for the Packers’ four-game skid is that they have just run out of warm bodies on the defensive side of the ball.

The Packers have now lost their two starting cornerbacks, their two starting middle linebackers, a backup cornerback, a backup safety, and now after last week their sack leader and primary pass rush presence in outside linebacker Nick Perry.

While of course it is possible that a few of these players could return to the playing field at any time, the fact remains that the Packers defensive players are simply not prepared to play at this high a level. Twice in the last two games the Packers have given up 21 points in a single quarter: Last week against the Redskins 14 of these 21 points were scored in less than one minute of total game time. Watching the film feels a lot like watching a preseason game.

Astonishingly, the Packers still remain in the playoff hunt, due in large part to the weakness of the 2016/17 NFC North. Green Bay is only two games back with 6 games to play. However, in order for the Pack to even think about the playoffs, they must first win a game.

But when a defense allows 1,683 yards, gives up 153 points, and forces zero takeaways over a four-game stretch and subsequently loses three more starting players to injury, there’s little cause for optimism.

It’s Raining Interceptions in Wentzylvania

Eagles Betting TipsThe Philadelphia Eagles began the season intending to rebuild in the aftermath of a failed 3-year experiment with coach Chip Kelly. After a series of bizarre personnel decisions under the former Oregon visionary, the 2016/17 season was intended to be a return to order, and a flurry of offseason roster changes ended up with a much-changed Eagles team.

New coach Doug Pederson and new quarterback Carson Wentz subsequently went 3–0, heralding talk that deified Wentz as the savior of the franchise and put him in conversations with fellow rookies Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemian as representing a tremendous draft class of quarterbacks.

However, since their Week 4 bye, the Eagles have lost 5 out of 7 games, leaving fans hungry for answers.

While it’s difficult to diagnose issues in a team with such immense turnover, there are two obvious candidates for the Eagles’ recent struggles. One is simply the strength of their opponents: The Eagles’ first three wins were against the Browns, Bears, and Steelers, who currently combine for 7 wins.

Subsequently, each of their next 7 games were against teams that currently have winning records, a fact that’s simply statistically unlikely with 19 teams in the league that are either at .500 or below through 11 weeks.

Despite the difficult stretch of games, the rookie quarterback still managed to win two games against current division leaders and kept all losses within one possession, save the last game where the Eagles lost by 11 points to the Seahawks in Seattle.

All this would paint a picture of a team that is better than their record shows, however the Eagles are currently plagued by one other issue, namely interceptions by Carson Wentz. Over the last 5 games, Wentz has thrown 4 TDs and 6 INTs and the Eagles have gone 1–4.

If the Eagles are to get back on track in this matchup and make a run at a wild card spot, their rookie QB will have to find a way to make smart decisions and protect the football.

Why I’m Taking the Over in Packers – Eagles

To me, it’s very simple: both of these teams desperately need a win to remain relevant in the playoff hunt, both of these teams should arrive amped up for Monday Night Football, both of these teams have little to offer on the defensive side of the ball (a dramatic understatement, currently, in the case of the Packers), and both teams have highly effective offenses.

Quite frankly, this should be a shoot-out, and at 51 degrees and sunny the weather forecast in Philly doesn’t look like it will get in the way.

Considering the fact that the Packers have given up 42 and 47 points in their last two games and subsequently lost more players to injury on the defensive side of the ball, this game could go over 47.5 total points even if the Packers didn’t score a point. This level of security is what makes Packers–Eagles this week’s best bet.

I strongly recommend the over in this matchup, listed at 47.5 points at the Bovada sportsbook.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.


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