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Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma Betting Lines

Game: #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0, 4-3 ATS) vs. #8 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
Time: 6:00pm EST. October 27, 2012
Location: Memorial Stadium. Norman, OK

Sportsbooks
Spread
Total
BetOnline.com
US Friendly
NTR
OKL
+11 (-110)
-11 (-110)
o48 (-110)
u48 (-110)
Bovada.lv
US Friendly
NTR
OKL
+11 (-105)
-11 (-115)
-
-

College football bettors trying to get a handle on this week’s Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma match up have a huge task on their hand. These teams appear to be more closely matched than the point spread is reflecting, and it should come down to defense and intangibles.

The Oklahoma Sooners are an experienced, but vulnerable team. While home losses in Norman are pretty rare, then-#15 Kansas State pulled it off, and that game has many thinking that the Irish could do the same.

Notre Dame is having a stellar year, but they’re not blowing out quality opponents. But with wins over three ranked opponents, they’ve got a legitimate shot at winning on Saturday. An outright win doesn’t matter though, not to handicappers anyway. At the time I write this, the undefeated Irish are getting 11 points on the road, which makes this game really interesting. There are no Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma money lines posted yet, but we could see some on Saturday. If you like Notre Dame straight-up, there could be some value here.

I keep hearing people talk about the 8-1 record Notre Dame has over Oklahoma, as if that means anything. The fact is, these teams haven’t played each other since 1999, and prior to that, their most recent matchup was in 1968 – the days of Arthur Fonzerelli and Elvis Presley. I don’t care if Notre Dame was 1000-1 against Oklahoma prior to 1968, none of that means a damn thing in 2012.

Notre Dame Betting Lines & Analysis

Best Notre Dame Point Spread: +11 (-105) at Bovada.lv
Best Notre Dame Moneyline: N/A

Notre Dame has been relying on a very solid defense this season while their offense takes shape. Even though they’re undefeated, it’s definitely a work in progress. They’re not dominating opponents, but their defense is keeping them in games when they can only manage to score 20 points.

Last week’s close win over BYU was a great encapsulation of this whole season. The Irish defense forced two Cougar turnovers and held them to just 243 yards of total offense (177 passing, 66 rushing). That’s exactly what they’ll need to do to keep up with the high powered Sooners offense.

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame struggled to put up 17 points, despite coming up with 389 yards (119 passing, 270 rushing). With Oklahoma allowing just 15 points per game (14.6 at home), Notre Dame cannot afford to play anything less than perfect football.

Oklahoma Betting Lines and Analysis

Best Oklahoma Point Spread: -11 (-110) at BetOnline.com
Best Oklahoma Moneyline: N/A

With almost 44 point/game, QB Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most powerful offenses in college football. While they’ve had some impressive wins, they’ve struggled when faced with top tier defenses. Jones can work miracles when he’s got time in the pocket but, as Kansas State proved, he has some real problems when the pressure is on. In the K-State loss, the Sooners gave up three turnovers and scored only 19 points, despite passing for almost 300 yards.

On defense, the Oklahoma Sooners have done a great job of keeping opponents out of the end zone. This season, only two teams have scored more than two touchdowns against the Sooners. While Notre Dame’s offense is improving, they could have some real problems getting into the end zone.

More than anything, I expect the Sooners faithful to be the deciding factor in this game. Notre Dame is a young team that’s only played one road game this season. While we’re not taking anything away from Michigan State fans (the site of ND’s only 2012 road game), Norman is simply a tough place to play. When the team’s are this evenly matched, the crowd matters.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma Point Spread Pick

Eleven points is a big number to cover in a close match up like this. Against three ranked opponents, the Irish won by an average of 10.5 points. The Oklahoma Sooners, who have only beaten one ranked opponent, won by 41. (But how much you’ll want to read into their 63-21 drubbing of Texas is up to you.)

I think this line is being driven by Sooner Nation and not by smart money. No matter what the people of Oklahoma think, this game should be pretty close, no matter who comes out on top.

I’m taking the dog and the points in this fight. My bet is Notre Dame +11 (-105) at the Bovada Sportsbook.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma Over/Under Prediction

The Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma over/under is 48 (-110) on either side at BetOnline.com. At the time I write this article (Thursday at 11:30am EST), Bovada has yet to post their over/under on this game.

Under Landry Jones, Oklahoma is capable of putting up big numbers, but I wonder how well they’ll perform against a defense like the Fighting Irish. With the Notre Dame defense on fire, I’m expecting a score in the range of 27-17 (34) to 30-20 (50). With the over/under at 48, I think we have an edge on the under.

Fighting Irish vs. Sooners Money Line Pick

It’s really tough to pick against the Sooners in Norman because they’ve got one of the best home records in all of college football (77-3 at home during the Bob Stoops era). Notre Dame on the other hand is 5-3 on the road during the, very brief, Brian Kelley era. Home field advantage can make all the difference, and I expect Oklahoma to win this straight-up. However, none of the major mobile betting sites have posted a money line on this game, so there’s nothing to pick here.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.


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