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NFL Wk 16 Betting: Colts vs. Raiders Over/Under Predictions

Indianapolis Colts(7–7) @ Oakland Raiders(11–3)

  • Where: Oakland Alameda Coliseum. Oakland, California
  • When: December 24, 2016 4:05 pm EST
  • Spread: Colts +4 (-115) vs. Raiders -4 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Colts (+155) vs. Raiders (-213)
  • Over / Under: Over 53 (-110) vs. Under 53 (-110)

While many of us may not open up our presents until Christmas Day, with a full slate of NFL games on Christmas Eve we all get a little something to enjoy. While the Colts taking on the Raiders may not be a matchup with very much at store for the 2016/17 playoffs, there’s nonetheless a very good chance that these two teams combine together for an explosive, high powered matchup just in time for the holiday.

The Colts are all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, meanwhile the Raiders have a playoff spot secured and are now simply competing against the Chiefs for the lead in the division and the better playoff seed. Let’s take a look at these two teams and analyze where the value in the markets is.

Indianapolis Colts one of 2016/17’s most unpredictable teams

Colts vs. Raiders PreviewTaking a look at the Colts record in 2016/17 looks a lot like a game of hopscotch: If you discount the two consecutive wins that were separated by the bye week, then the Colts have been flipping between winning and losing really for 14 weeks straight. (If the trend does continue, then their win last week should mean a loss this week, which makes one argument for taking the Raiders’ moneyline.)

The Colts have also played in every kind of game this season: they’ve barely beaten bad teams (26-22 home vs. the Chargers); they’ve lost big to good teams (28-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh); they’ve lost to bad teams (30-27 loss in Jacksonville); they’ve beaten up on good teams (last week’s 28-point victory in Minnesota); and through all of this, the only consistent factor has been inconsistency.

If you take a more fine-grain view of the Colts 2016/17 schedule you find that their performance has had almost everything to do with the health of Andrew Luck, the health of their receivers, and most importantly whether the offensive line shows up. But nonetheless, the Colts are hard to pin down. While three of their linemen are listed as “questionable” on this week’s injury report, by and large the Colts are healthy on offense, making an argument for betting on Andrew Luck and some Colts receivers for any yardage prop bets you can get your hands on.

On the other hand, while the Colts 4-touchdown road win as well as their ability to put up 34 total points last week against a supposedly stout Lions offense would definitely suggest to us that the over is a safe bet for this matchup, we don’t quite like the chances of this game surpassing a 53-point total score. But a two-team over/under teaser play (perhaps with the under in Vikings/Packers?) would set the total score at 47, which we find much more likely to cover.

The matchup to watch is the Colts’ leaky offensive line against the Raiders’ stout defensive front. If the Colts can give Andrew Luck time, like they did last week (his first game in 24 straight contests without a sack), he should be able to move the ball. If Kahlil Mack and company cause them to regress, it could be another long night for Indianapolis.

Oakland Raiders looking to regain their identity

The Oakland Raiders have been one of the most exciting teams in football in 2016/17, as demonstrated by the fact that NFL fans voted seven Raiders’ players to the Pro Bowl – the highest number for a single team in the entire league.

We feel pretty strongly that these players will be able to attend the game in Hawaii, too, as it’s very unlikely that this team will make it to the Super Bowl. We would stay away from their odds (+1200), particularly considering that these are the same odds you could get for the Green Bay Packers, who could just as easily miss the playoffs as win the Super Bowl.

Nothing much has changed for the Raiders over the past two months: They are among the healthiest teams in the league and looking to keep rolling into the postseason. The simple fact is after 6 straight wins in which the team averaged over 32 points per game, the Raiders followed this up with two performances where they averaged 16 points and went 1-1.

So while there isn’t any major cause for concern going into the postseason, the Raiders will definitely be looking to flip the script and regain their high-octane identity at home (both of the previous two low-scoring games were on the road) in order to fight for their ability to play more home games in the postseason.

Colts at Raiders week 16 O/U pick

I’m betting on over 43 (-110) at Bovada in the IND vs. OAK game on Saturday. Sign-up to Bovada to get a 50% bonus for up to $250 cash, which you can use to bet on every single NFL game.

The Colts’ success rests entirely in the hands of their offensive line. I foresee a mixed bag: I like the o-line to stack on last week’s success for roughly half of the total snaps (leading to some deep shots and long touchdowns) but also to regress for the other half in a loud stadium with Kahlil Mack and others gunning for the quarterback (leading to some turnovers and short possessions).

On the other side of the ball, I like the Raiders to take care of business in front of the home crowd, and start trying to get their offense clicking again.

I predict this game ends up at 34–24 in favor of the Raiders.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.


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