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NFL Week 15: Bet under 41.5 points in Buccaneers vs. Rams

Bet on the Buccaneers vs. Rams Week 15Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. St. Louis Rams Preview

When: Thursday, December 17th 2015 at 8:25pm ET
Where: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri
Watch: NFL Network

BOTH the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-7 (7-6 ATS) and St. Louis Rams 5-8 (5-7-1 ATS) are in the wild card hunt in the NFC, but neither team are in a good position. The Bucs lost at home to the Saints (24-17) last week and need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. STL kept their playoff hopes alive with a win against the Lions (21-14).

Buccaneers at Rams point spread and over/under odds

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Action on the game total has been split nearly down the middle to start the week. More bets have been coming in on the Bucs and that isn’t likely to change. This is a big game for the Bucs and the public will be backing Jamies Winston instead of Case Keenum.

Injuries and statistics

Todd Gurley has a banged up knee, but there’s no doubt he’ll be playing on Thursday night. The rest of the Rams skill players are healthy, but Gurley is the only one producing lately. Vincent Jackson was injured in week 14 and will likely miss the rest of the regular season for the Buccaneers. The rest of the Bucs are healthy, but Winston is losing one of his best targets.

Here’s a breakdown of how these teams match-up on paper.

Buccaneers vs. Rams week 15 picks

All signs point to this game going under. The total is low and that’s attracting even action at the betting window, but let me explain why under 41 points is the best bet. Both offenses are struggling to move the football. Winston is coming off a 18/32 outing where he only had 182 passing yards and 1 TD. Doug Martin ran the football well against the Saints (11 Carries for 81 yards and 1 TD), but he didn’t get enough touches. The main reason was because the Saints got out to an early lead.

Keenum is going to get the start at QB again for the Rams, but he didn’t do much against Detroit. Keenum went 14/22 for 124 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Todd Gurley broke out for a monster game, though, as he had 140 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries. Gurley will be tasked with leading the offense again, but the Buccaneers have been good against the run. Lovie Smith is smart enough to take Gurley out of the game and force Keenum to beat them through the air with his limited weapons.

The head-to-head trends point to the under as well. The last five H2H games have had 41 points or less scored. These are two bad offensive teams and this game should play out similarly to how the Rams and Lions game did. Gurley and Martin are likely to see a lot of work early in the game and both teams will likely stick with the run if its close. With Jackson out, Winston will look towards Mike Evans. He has had some big games when Jackson has been out, but he has also been inconsistent all season.

St. Louis have won the last three H2H games, which have all been played in the past three seasons. The Rams have struggled against the run this season, but Martin isn’t getting enough touches to do much damage. The Rams are 4-3 at home compared to 1-5 on the road. This is going to be a close low scoring game and I give the edge to the Rams in that situation. Evans is going to be smothered in the pass game, especially with Jackson now out. Both teams need a win, so it’ll be a good game to start week 15.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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