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NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving Day Best Bets and Betting Lines

Chicago Bears(5-6) @ Detroit Lions(3-7-1)

  • Where: Ford Field. Detroit, MI
  • When: November 28, 2019 12:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Bears -3 (+100) vs. Lions +3 (-120)
  • Moneyline: Bears (-160) vs. Lions (+140)
  • Over / Under: Over 38.5 (-110) vs. Under 38.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Day is this Thursday and that means there’s a three-game slate to bet on.

I’m going to preview each of the three games and share my Thanksgiving Day best bets. Two of the games aren’t overly intriguing, but I’m looking forward to the Bills vs. Cowboys game.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Week 13 Picks

The Bears (3-8 ATS) take on the Lions (4-7 ATS) in the opener on Thanksgiving Day.

Detroit have lost seven of their last eight games and they’ve failed to cover ATS in six consecutive outings. There’s little reason to believe the Lions are going to turn things around this season.

Bears vs. Lions Week 12 PredictionsMatthew Stafford could miss the remainder of the season. Jeff Driskel (hamstring) is now banged up and will be limited if he starts. Khalil Mack and the Bears pass rush will be able to feast.

The Bears’ defense allows 17.1 PPG (4th), 218.8 PYPG (9th) and 96.8 RYPG (8th). Since Driskel took over at QB, the Lions offense has faltered. Detroit’s offense averages 23.6 PPG (12th) and 378.5 YPG (9th).

After suffering a four-game losing streak, the Bears have won two of three, including a win in week 10 against the Lions (20-13). The win over Detroit was one of Mitchell Trubisky’s best games.

Trubisky only went 16/23 for 173 yards, but he tossed 3 TDs and had zero TO’s. The Bears offense has struggled all season. The offense averages 17.1 PPG (28th), 190.7 PYPG (30th) and 78.5 RYPG (29th).

Chicago have won the last three H2H games now, including a win on Thanksgiving Day last year. I’m betting on the Bears to cover ATS (-3) and I’ll have the Bears ML (-160) on my moneyline parlay.

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys Week 13 Picks

Betting Odds -> Point Spread: Bills +7 (-120) vs. Cowboys -7 (+100) / Over 45 (-115) vs. Under 45 (-105)

The Bills are 8-3 (7-3-1 ATS) and firmly in the AFC playoff race. In fact, they could even catch up to NE in the AFC East, although that’s unlikely to happen unless the Patriots implode.

Dallas are 6-5 (7-4 ATS) and lead the NFC East, but the Eagles are close. The Cowboys will likely need to win the division to make the playoffs, so this is an important game for them to win.

Bills vs. Cowboys Week 12 PredictionsThe Cowboys average 26.8 PPG (6th), 303.5 PYPG (1st) and 129.8 RYPG (8th) offensively. They’ll have their hands full this week, as the Bills defense allows 15.7 PPG (3rd), 184.3 PYPG (3rd) and 104.4 RYPG (15th).

My money is on Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys offense to produce at home.

Buffalo will need to rely on their running game (139.2 RYPG – 5th). The Cowboys have been great on defense this season, they’ve allowed 19.1 PPG (6th), 213.6 PYPG (6th) and 104.8 RYPG (16th).

As you can see, the one area where the Bills can find success is on the ground. Josh Allen will need to use his feet to move the chains and Devin Singletary needs to rush for 100+ yards.

The Bills also utilize the veteran Frank Gore a lot still. Being able to keep the RBs fresh by splitting the workload has worked great for the Bills. John Brown has been a big surprise at WR too.

These teams rarely play each other and while I like the value on the Bills ML and will definitely have some action on them to win at +250 odds, my best bet is on this low total going over.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 13 Picks

Betting Odds -> Point Spread: Saints -7 (-105) vs. Falcons +7 (-115) / Over 49 (-110) vs. Under 49 (-110)

The Saints lead the NFC South with a 9-2 (7-4 ATS) record, while the Falcons are 3-8 (4-7 ATS) and sit last in the division. NO have won two consecutive games, while ATL are coming off a loss to TB.

Saints vs. Falcons Week 13 PredictionsThese two teams just played each other in week 10 and the Falcons won in NO (26-9). It was the first time in Drew Brees’ career that the Saints were held to under 10 points at the Superdome.

You can bet Brees hasn’t forgotten about that game and now he has a chance to get revenge with the entire country watching. I expect the Saints to dominate and cover the TD point spread.

The Saints offense hasn’t been great, as they’re averaging 24.7 PPG (9th), 260.5 PYPG (9th) and 108.5 RYPG (17th). The run game has struggled despite having Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.

However, the ATL defense is worse. They allow 27 PPG (28th), 266.4 PYPG (27th) and 109.9 RYPG (18th). I expect Brees to pick the secondary apart and Michael Thomas will put up big numbers. There always seems to be a blowout on Thanksgiving and I’ll bet it’ll be this game.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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