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NBA: Grizzlies vs. Thunder point spread betting

Bet on Grizzlies vs. Thunder - NBA February 11th 2015When: Wednesday, February 11th 2015 at 8:00pm ET
Where: Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City
Watch: SportsSouth & FS-Oklahoma

THE Oklahoma City Thunder 27-25 (23-28-1 ATS) are still trying to claw back into the playoff race in the Western Conference and a match-up against the Memphis Grizzlies 39-13 (28-23-1 ATS) isn’t what the doctor ordered.

Memphis are 13-2 in their last 15 games and only trail the Warriors in the West. The Thunder are on a 2-game winning streak and they’re 4-1 in their last 5 games. Oklahoma City needs to keep winning though – because they’re still 1-½ games back of the Suns for the 8th and final spot in the NBA playoffs.

MEM at OKC odds

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The point spread and over/under odds were both just released. I agree that the Thunder should be favored at home, but there is no way they should be favored by six points. I’m jumping on the Grizzlies now before the line drops and I’ll explain my reasoning below.

Bet on Memphis to cover the spread against Oklahoma City

Both teams come into this game relatively healthy. Steven Adams underwent surgery on his broken hand and is out for the Thunder while Vince Carter is sidelined for the Grizzlies. Between the two injuries losing Adams is definitely the bigger loss.

Adams is averaging 7.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.22 BPG, however, he does a lot on defense as well that goes unnoticed. Kendrick Perkins is likely to receive the start at center and Nick Collison will get his minutes, but the player to watch is Mitch McGary.

McGary has only played in four games, but he has made a big impression. McGary has averaged 9.8 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 14.3 MPG – although those numbers are improving. He scored 17 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in 25 minutes against Denver on Monday.

While McGary has made some noise this isn’t an ideal match-up because Memphis ranks first at defending the center position this season. Marc Gasol not only defends the paint well (1.7 BPG), but he also leads the Grizzlies in points scored (18.5 PPG).

The biggest question in this game is can the Grizzlies shutdown Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?

I believe they can and recent results back up that hypothesis. These two teams have met twice this season and the Grizzlies are 2-0 with a 91-89 win on the road and 85-74 win at home. Surprisingly, Durant and Westbrook only played in the second game.

The second game wasn’t long ago (January 31st 2015) and the Thunder’s superstars struggled. Westbrook finished the game with 14 points on 5-16 shooting, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. Durant shot 5-16 from the field (16 Points) while hauling in 7 boards and 4 assists.

Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Jeff Green can all play strong defense and that’s how you beat the Thunder. Westbrook and Durant are relied on to score over 50% of the points. OKC averages 100.6 PPG (13th) with Westbrook and Durant scoring 51.8 PPG.

Memphis ranks 1st in the NBA in points allowed (95.6 PPG) plus they score 100.8 PPG (12th). The Thunder allow 99.0 PPG (11th) and if the Grizzlies can score 100+ points they’ll win this game straight-up and the +6 point spread won’t even come into play.

One edge that the Thunder have is rebounding, as they rank 1st in rebounds (46.4 RPG). Memphis averages 43.1 RPG (16th) and they need to clean up the glass on the defensive end because the Thunder pick up a lot of second chances (11.9 ORPG – 7th).

The biggest match-up in this game could prove to be Zach Randolph vs. Serge Ibaka. Randolph is averaging a double-double (16.8 PPG & 12.0 RPG) and has been on a tear since returning from injury. Ibaka averages 13.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 2.25 BPG.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder picks

Not only am I betting on the point spread, but I’ll also have a ½ unit wager on the money line. Memphis are 16-8 on the road while the Thunder are 15-8 at home. However, Memphis are 23-8 within the conference while the Thunder are 15-17 in conference play.

The West is easily the toughest conference and East/West splits are very telling in the NBA. The game plan is real simple – shutdown Durant and Westbrook to win. As long as the Grizzlies hold the two superstars to less than 50 points combined they’ll win SU.

I won’t have action on the over/under market although I lean to the under 198 points.

The two head-to-head games this season have stayed under the total. Bookies are still setting Memphis totals too high, as the Grizzlies have an over/under record of 1-9-1 in their last 11 games. I expect it to be close, but I’d bet on the under or pass.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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