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Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Broncos O/U Total Pick

Kansas City Chiefs(3-0) @ Denver Broncos(2-1)

  • Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, CO
  • When: October 1, 2018 8:15 pm EST
  • Spread: KC (-5) at DEN (+5)
  • Moneyline: KC (-210) at DEN (+175)
  • Over / Under: Over 55 (-105) at Under 55 (-115)

The National Football League isn’t merely designed so that every franchise has a shot to be successful every season. It’s designed so that all 32 squads are able to maintain some semblance of balance.

Every NFL team can run, pass, block, tackle, and catch…to some small extent, at least. When a pro gridiron squad becomes totally imbalanced in some way, it’s such a freak that you can’t divert your eyes. It’s extremely rare for an NFL club to be great at one thing, yet absolutely suck at another.

Kickers, for instance, tend to “vibe” their locker rooms and if everything is going badly, they might have an awful year, but if things are going great then it’s all easy chip-shots. Units on a team ideally feed off each other – most are able to at least play mediocre football in inspired moments.

That’s why the 2018-19 Kansas City Chiefs are so remarkable. The Chiefs are so outstanding on one unit, yet so dreadful on another, that it’s almost an absurd sight. Yet the team is winning – and Vegas doesn’t quite know what to do with them.

Andy Reid’s squad is favored by (-5) points and is a (-210) moneyline favorite over the hosting Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The game’s current O/U total is (55), but I’m sure KC fans would joke that it should be “555” instead, given their watching the team.

KC Chiefs betting: Don’t expect boring games

The offense is on a record-setting pace. Patrick Mahomes just broke Peyton Manning’s record by throwing 13 touchdown passes through 3 games (on pace for a staggering 65+ on the season). Andy Reid deserves a ton of credit for orchestrating the offense, and throwing in new wrinkles every week, but Mahomes is simply executing with remarkable efficiency.

But as exciting as the offense is, it’s a sad fact that anyone can score on the KC defense. The same analytics that rank Kansas City #1 in the NFL on offense rank them dead last on defense.

The Chiefs gave up less than 450 yards to the 49ers last weekend. That’s a minor triumph, because 2 weeks prior, Kansas City gave up almost 600 yards of offense to the L.A. Chargers.

The hapless unit could get some help with then return of Eric Berry, who missed the start of the season with a foot injury and remains less than 100%. He’s been missing practice despite promises that he may return.

The Chiefs haven’t even had a good scare yet because of how well the offense is playing, but at some point they’re going to need play-makers on the defense – if there are any out there – to step up.

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Broncos deal with the Kelce Curse

Travis Kelce has 3 career games eclipsing 130 receiving yards. 2 of those are against the Denver Broncos.

The Broncos aren’t doing any better defending tight ends this season, allowing 10 catches for 218 yards and a score to TEs through 3 games.

Denver doesn’t have any one player who can match up with Kelce, and with the numerous weapons on the KC offense, they can’t afford to double team him regularly.

Expect to see a combination of linebackers and athletic safety Justin Simmons on Kelce, and even Von Miller at times – a variety of looks to try to throw off Mahomes.

Case Keenum has been up and down as the Broncos starter. Keenum is moving the ball very well, but his kryptonite curse is the propensity to throw backbreaking interceptions at critical times.

Keenum has looked exceptional in the 4th quarter, completing 72.7% of his passes with 2 game-winning drives. Vance Joseph seems confident that Keenum is the team’s answer at quarterback. He could potentially have the chance to show off against a weak KC unit.

MNF Week 4 Over/Under Pick

I’m liking Kansas City ATS, because I don’t trust the Denver offense as much as the head coach does.

However, the strongest play on the KC-DEN board is over (55) points. Denver should score at least 3 touchdowns, and I’m thinking the Chiefs will score at least 5.

If a 14-point swing happens to go the Broncos’ way? That makes 4 and 4 touchdowns…and 56 points.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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