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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Betting Lines – CFB Week 12

#1 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. #5 Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

Start Time: Saturday, November 15th 2014 at 3:30pm ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Station: CBS

The Mississippi State Bulldogs 9-0 (5-0 SEC) and Alabama Crimson Tide 8-1 (5-1 SEC) play on Saturday afternoon in what could end up being the game of the year. Bama can still win the SEC West, but they have to beat the Bulldogs at home this weekend.

It looked like Alabama’s season was over last week, as LSU held a 3-point lead in the final minute. Bama moved into FG position and ended up winning on a TD in overtime. They’ll need to play much better if they want to beat an undefeated Bulldogs team.

Bulldogs vs. Crimson Tide Point Spread Odds

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There is no over/under released for this game yet. The point spread has opened up at –8 for Alabama and I think that’s way too high based on the way these two teams are playing. I know the game is in Tuscaloosa, but to cover over a TD is asking a lot.

Why Alabama Will Cover ATS

Alabama comes into the game averaging 34.7 PPG (34th), 281.2 PYPG (29th) and 206.1 RYPG (36th) on offense. Blake Sims is putting up great numbers including 17 TD passes and just 3 INT’s, but his accuracy for most of the 2H against LSU was way off the mark.

The Crimson Tide will need Sims to be on his game to win, as the Bulldogs defense struggles mightily against the pass. The Bulldogs defense is only allowing 19.7 PPG (16th) and 126.7 RYPG (22nd), but they’re giving up a whopping 300.6 PYPG (120th).

Lane Kiffin should try to open up the game early by airing it out against this questionable secondary. Once they’re able to build up a lead the run game can take over. T.J. Yeldon is banged up, but as of writing this article he is expected to suit up for this game.

Derrick Henry has looked great as well and he has a bruising run style that’s a great compliment to Yeldon’s speed. The key player on this Bama team is Amari Cooper. He had a rough outing against LSU, but he has to be chomping at the bit to play this pass defense.

Why Mississippi State Will Cover ATS

This is the best defense that the Bulldogs have had to play against all season although they did put up 34 points against LSU and 38 points against Auburn. Mississippi State is averaging 39.8 PPG (12th), 254.9 RYPG (16th) and 267.2 PYPG (39th) on offense.

Dak Prescott has thrown for 2231 yards and 18 TD’s, but the 7 INT’s is a problem. What makes Prescott so dangerous is the fact that he can take off on defenders. Prescott has rushed for 779 yards and 11 TD’s. It helps that the MSU o-line is extremely strong.

Most people don’t expect the Bulldogs to run much, but Josh Robinson has been utilized perfectly behind the big o-line. He leads the team with 984 rushing yards and he also has 11 rushing TD’s. The Bulldogs have to stay balanced to beat the Bama defense.

Alabama is only allowing 13.9 PPG (2nd), 89.8 RYPG (3rd) and 185.4 PYPG (15th). In Bama’s lone loss they were beaten through the air and Prescott will have to do the same. De’Runnya Wilson leads MSU with 6 receiving TD’s and he has to a have productive game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Picks

The Crimson Tide are 6-0 (4-2 ATS) in the last six years against the Bulldogs. All of the wins have been by double digits, but these two teams aren’t the same as they were in year’s past. I think the H2H trend will make many bettors on Bama to cover ATS.

I just haven’t been that impressed with Alabama this year. They ended up covering last week in OT, but they needed a ton to go right in order to get the cover and frankly they didn’t even deserve to win based on the way that they played most of the 2H.

Another reason I like MSU is because they played a cupcake opponent (UT Martin) last week and were able to rest up most of the starters at QB, RB and WR. They’ll be well rested and prepared to come into Tuscaloosa and at +8 points I love the Bulldogs.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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