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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Total Points Pick Week 16

Miami Dolphins(9–5) @ Buffalo Bills(7–7)

  • Where: New Era Field. Orchard Park, New York
  • When: December 24, 2016 1:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-110) vs. Bills -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Dolphins (+165) vs. Bills (-185)
  • Over / Under: Over 42 (-110) vs. Under 42 (-110)

After the NFL so graciously provided us opportunities on Thanksgiving to avoid talking to relatives, the calendar aligned to bring us a full slate of games on Christmas Eve, as well as games on both Christmas Day and the day after, so all of your holiday party woes should be gone.

For this Saturday afternoon matchup pitting two AFC East teams against each other, while there are few playoff implications and not a whole lot at stake, it should nonetheless be a very entertaining game.

The Bills are essentially out of playoff contention. However, the Dolphins are currently holding down the 6th seed and the second wild card spot behind the 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs. While the AFC West has yet to be decided, it’s very probable the Chiefs and the Raiders will take two playoff berths between them.

What this means is that the Dolphins merely need to outpace the leaders of the AFC South (Texans, 8-6; Titans, 8-6) and the AFC North (Steelers, 9-5; Ravens, 8-6) in order to hang on to their playoff berth. Unless one of those two divisions offers a 2nd-place team with more wins than the Dolphins (or a tiebreaker situation), the Dolphins should be able to enjoy their first playoff berth since 2008.

However, while such a scenario may seem unlikely, keep in mind that the real-life odds that the Dolphins miss the playoffs are as high as 45%. So this matchup is very important to the Dolphins, and could be very important to your wallet! We suggest betting 1-unit on the Dolphins money line (+165) at Bovada.

The Miami Dolphins’ playoff spots are not as secure as you think

After a 6-game win streak, the Dolphins suffered a truly terrible 32-point loss against the Baltimore Ravens, as I predicted would happen. Subsequently, however, the Dolphins went right back to their winning ways, and have now stacked two consecutive wins despite having to replace mediocre game manger Ryan Tannehill with mediocre game manager Matt Moore.

While my confidence in the Dolphins was certainly shaken in that bad game against the Ravens, as was the rest of the gambling public’s, I feel that the Dolphins are not getting enough respect at this juncture and am surprised that they are road underdogs by more than a field goal in a divisional game.

In this way the Dolphins current situation looks an awful lot like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that is definitely talented, but just not experienced enough to know how to handle success and how to close out a season, and a team that currently sits on the edge of playoff contention.

Thinking about the Bucs and Dolphins both fighting for the very same Wild Card spot, this could be a really strong opportunity for a two-team teaser, as both teams are road underdogs (Bucs +3 at New Orleans). I really like the opportunity for both the Bucs to win or lose by less than 9 and the Dolphins to win or lose by less than 9.5 – consider pounding a two-team tease.

The Buffalo Bills are looking towards the off-season

BUF vs MIA PredictionsAlthough the stat sheets don’t fully capture the experience, the Bills have been soundly beaten for two weeks in a row against the Raiders and Steelers before beating up on the Browns last week in Buffalo. This may have been enough to get the losing taste out of their mouth, but it doesn’t mean they’ll be heading for a comeback anytime soon.

With fingers of blame being pointed at the head coach, the GM, and anyone else who steps into the spotlight, the Bills may be struggling to stay focused on winning football games at this juncture.

The Bills are actually not quite mathematically eliminated from the playoffs at this point, but I don’t have any confidence that their infinitesimal chances of getting in will lend them any more motivation than does the simple opportunity of beating a division rival on your home turf.

Dolphins at Bills over/under best bet

The last time these two teams played each other, the Bills allowed Jay Ajayi more than 200 yards. Noting that he has been kept contained over the last month (59 carries for 205 yards over the last four games, an average of close to 3.5 yards), I like his chances to have a bounce-back game, set up by the downfield respect earned after the surprising success of Matt Moore throwing the football last week.

I also like the Dolphins’ front seven to continue surging against their division rivals, and foresee this cold weather game being close. I predict a final score of 24-13 in favor of the Miami Dolphins, and I recommend that interested parties take the under, listed at 42 points at the Bovada Sportsbook.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.


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