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Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under Analysis

The two worst teams in the AFC South play on Sunday in a match-up that most football fans have no interest in. I, however, expect this game to be one of the easiest to predict. My best bet of the week is on the over/under market in the Jaguars vs. Texans.

This season the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) and Houston Texans (2-8) have been horrendous. It was expected that the Jags would be bad again this year, but the Texans were expected to contend for the AFC South title although that’s never going to happen now.

Latest Jaguars vs. Texans Game Total Odds

I thought that the over/under betting line was opened a bit too low this week. Bookmakers released the number at O/U 43, but the total has now gone up to O/U 43.5 points and I expect it to continue increasing, so I recommend betting on the over now.

Why I’m Betting on the Over in Jacksonville vs. Houston

These two teams haven’t been able to move the football much this year, but both teams shouldn’t have a problem scoring points on the opposing defense this week. The offenses on Jacksonville and Houston may be poor, but the defenses have been even worse.

Now I don’t know if teams are taking their home games lightly against Jacksonville, but the Jags have scored an average of 18.4 PPG on the road compared to 7 PPG at home. With a low total they only need to score 17+ points to give us a great shot at the over.

The same can be said for the Texans. At home they average 20 PPG while on the road they score 16.6 PPG. The Texans have started to slowly improve offensively under Case Keenum. Keenum was pulled last week in the Raiders loss, but he’ll be starter this week.

On the season the Jaguars have a turnover ratio of –7 while the Texans are at –11 in that category. Both teams only have 4 INT’s on defense apiece, but they’ve each thrown 10+ INT’s. The defenses should have plenty of opportunities to set-up short fields.

Both teams are surprisingly in the top 10 in the return game on special teams. Jacksonville and Houston both average 25.6 YPR (6th), so look for that to play a factor as well. Even with short fields the offenses will still need to be efficient and score touchdowns.

Jacksonville is allowing 252.2 PYPG (24th) and Keenum will look to air it out on them. Keenum was pulled last week and I think that was a quick awakening for the young QB. Your job is never secure in the NFL. I expect the QB to look much better on Sunday.

The Jags run defense is the worst in the NFL (139.1 RYPG Allowed), but I’m not sure what to make of the Texans running game with Foster out. Ben Tate is getting over 20 touches a game the L3 weeks with Foster out, but he has a nagging rib injury as well.

There is no denying that the Jags have had a tough time running the football due to opposing defenses stacking the box. Jones-Drew is averaging 2.9 yards per attempt on 157 carries and he only has 4 TD’s, but he has scored in each of the Jags last two games.

Houston allows 118.6 RYPG (23rd) and MJD will have a chance to have a 100+ yard rushing game. Despite struggling this year they’ve kept with him. They need to continue that, as Chad Henne will find it tough throwing on Houston who allow 167.5 PYPG (1st).

Jacksonville allows teams to score an average of 31.8 PPG (31st) while the Texans have allowed 27.6 PPG (28th). When you add up all of the turnovers, penalties and silly mistakes it’s no wonder these teams are giving up as many as points as they have been.

Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under Picks

The last time these two teams played (November 18th 2012) they combined to score 80 points and had over 1000 total yards. That won’t happen again, but these two teams like to beat each other and I expect there to be enough points to send this game over.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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