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Giants vs. Patriots Betting Tips

Of course Super Bowl XLVI kicks off tomorrow February 5th, with a matchup between the New York Giants and New England Patriots. Although many NFL handicappers think this is a closer game than the current odds reflect, this also provides an opportunity for people betting on the game.

Right now, the Giants Patriots line has the Patriots favored by 2.5 to 3 points on the spread. Of course the money line is also giving us better odds for the Giants, who are currently listed between +115 and +122 at most online betting sites.

What Should the Giants Patriots Betting Lines Really Be?

If you’re new to sports betting, it’s important to understand what sportsbooks are trying to accomplish with their lines. Offering true odds isn’t the goal, so we often have point spreads and money lines that overly favor one team. The goal of a sportsbook is to create betting odds that will generate an even amount of betting for both teams in the game, taking less risk and making their guaranteed money on the juice (commission). For example, if a sportsbook takes $1 million in bets on team A, and $700,000 on team B, the sportsbook is exposed to a $300,000 loss.

To create even betting, the linemakers have to shade the line. This means that they have to adjust the odds to the favor of the team receiving the smaller volume of bets. This encourages more people to bet on them, thus creating more even betting.

For this Giants Patriots Super Bowl game, more casual bettors prefer the Patriots to win. So, the line is shaded to create more betting for the New York Giants. In this particular case, it’s believed that the lines have been adjusted 2-3 points. This is great for those who prefer the Giants, because they’re getting those points for free, giving us an advantage up to a field goal.

This also gives us an advantage on the money line, putting the Giants in the range of +115 to +122 at most online sportsbooks. If the betting lines weren’t being shaded, this would likely be a pick’em game.

Betting Tips for NY Giants vs. NE Patriots

Considering that the value is on the New York Giants, most serious handicappers will be betting on them. For winning handicappers, it’s all about value. This game is a great example. Most experts think this is a pick’em game, meaning that the Giants should win 50% of the time. If these teams played 1000 times under the exact same circumstances, the Giants would win 500 of those games. If you’re getting better than equal betting odds, we should be taking that value.

For this reason, and because I agree that the Giants win this game about 50% of the time, I’m betting on the Giants point spread and money line. I’m also predicting a Giants outright win, so instead of taking them at +3 (-120) at JustBet, I’m taking them at +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline.com. I expect a Giants win, so why pay the extra juice for a 1/2 point I don’t expect to need? Taking the extra 1/2 point gives you a push if the Patriots win by exactly 3 points, but it’s a more conservative approach that doesn’t follow my predictions.

Another Giants vs. Patriots Betting Tip
: For finding value, it’s all about timing the bet properly. Most of the betting action comes in 1-2 days before the game begins, and most of that comes in the last several hours. The Giants – Patriots betting lines have been up for 12-13 days now, and they haven’t adjusted much. However, starting today and picking up tomorrow, the lines should see more movement now than ever. Because it’s a huge, international event, the Super Bowl will draw in most of the betting action from casual bettors. This is likely to keep the odds propped up for the Patriots, but that isn’t necessarily the case.

During most regular season games, NFL betting odds are more predictable. For the Super Bowl, it’s different for a couple of reasons. Since the odds have been up for so long already, they are less likely to see big swings either way. In games where there is less betting action, a single large bet could be enough to adjust the lines. In this game however, the volume is so big that a couple hundred grand on either side isn’t going to make as big of an impact.

In theory, this should mean that we’ll see less movement in the lines from now until game time. If we’re going to see any dramatic changes in the odds, it will likely be the last few hours before the game begins. Depending on which side you’re betting on, you could lose or gain value the longer you wait. This goes for any type of bet you’re making, whether it be a spread bet, money line bet, over/under, or even a prop bet. If you see a bet where the value looks good to you now, it might be smart to get your bets in now while the value is available. In sports betting, procrastinating can cost us money.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.


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