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Giants at Eagles Money Line Best Bet – Week 16 TNF

New York Giants(10-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles(5-9)

  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia, PA
  • When: December 22, 2016 8:25 pm EST
  • Spread: Giants -3 (-105) at Eagles +3 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Giants (-145) at Eagles (+125)
  • Over / Under: Over 41.5 (-110) vs Under 41.5 (-110)

Peyton Manning once described his younger brother Eli, then-and-now starting QB of the New York Giants, as sulky and bitter after throwing an interception. To retaliate, Eli nailed Peyton for the latter’s arm-flapping indignant attitude when things go wrong on the field.

The brotherly psychoanalysis conveys a deeper truth – Peyton has been expected to win throughout his career, given near-complete control of the offense on oft-loaded teams. Eli Manning, in contrast, has spent his time in the league fighting for victories and equal respect…often with stunning results.

Bettors have been more handsomely rewarded by Peyton’s Broncos and Colts when playing Super Bowl and playoff-bid futures. But serious gamblers have learned never to take Eli’s Giants lightly. Through thick and thin, they’re a threat to win straight-up or blow out the O/U each weekend of an NFL season.

The 2016-17 Big Blue are 10-4 and 2 games behind Dallas in the NFC East standings. Yet they’ve beaten the powerful Cowboys twice – once in a 20-19 Week 1 squeaker and again 2 Sundays ago, when the Giants intercepted Dak Prescott 2 times en route to a 10-7 defensive triumph. Ben McAdoo’s squad has won 8 out of its last 9 and is 7-2 ATS over those games.

The Eagles carry a 5-game losing streak into Thursday Night Football. It is easy to place blame on rookie starting QB Carson Wentz, who has thrown for 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2016. But a defense that will break hearts is equally culpable. MLB Jordan Hicks’ pick of Joe Flacco to help set up a near-comeback win over the Ravens in Week 15 was encouraging. But in Week 14, Philly allowed 3 2nd-half touchdowns in a 27-22 loss to flagging Washington.

Bet on Giants vs. Eagles NFC East rivalry game at the Bovada Sportsbook and get up to $250 free.

Eagles – Why the sudden faith?

NYG at PHI PredictionsSomebody in Las Vegas or elsewhere has a tip that TNF might tip Philadelphia’s way, despite all the apparent negatives. A 5-9 team in the doldrums (and 1 year removed from a major head-coaching controversy over the firing of Chip Kelly) hosts a bona-fide playoff contender in a game played on short rest and close to home for both clubs. But there sits the money line at (+125) with only a very modest Eagles-lean after opening bets.

What do the bookies see? Perhaps that the Eagles are 7-3 against the Blue in the past 10 head-to-head match-ups. Or maybe it’s the team’s near-miss in the Meadowlands on November 6th, in which the Giants prevailed 28-23 despite 350+ passing yards from Carson Wentz.

Does New York have little to play for? The division might be out of reach, but the visitors have not mathematically clinched a playoff spot and are only assured of a home-field advantage in at least 1 game with a win Thursday or in Week 17.

Finally – what about the TNF blues? But a 10-4 team is less likely to be rolling like thunder trying to get rested for a short week. Want to know which potential value picks are adversely affected on Thursdays? Start with teams who have less incentive to survive with a win, like the down-trodden Eagles.

Running back is an issue in Philadelphia, with Darren Sproles’ concussion issue exacerbating backfield woes. RB Kenjon Barner is doubtful for TNF which further thins an undistinguished unit, and could significantly affect Philly’s ability to impact the O/U.

Giants – Finding the comfort zone?

At the beginning of each NFL season, points and passing yards soar. Warm weather, sunny skies and fresh playbooks (with a healthy team to execute them) combine to thwart wagerers playing the under and anyone gambling on a defense to do anything.

Fast forward a couple of months, and battered QBs are slogging through poor weather, nursing a 13-7 lead in a game with 2 re-invigorated defenses. Injuries at offensive tackle allow end-rushers to feast on the passer. Suddenly, a 300-yard QB day is no longer necessary to win.

The Giants’ front-7 simply stood up to the burly Cowboys’ ground game 2 games ago, holding America’s Team to around 250 yards of offense. Eli Manning, comfortable in ragged, low-scoring scrums, protected the ball better than his young counter-part Prescott.

New York has struggled to run the ball at times in 2016-17, but has rushed for over 200 yards in the last 2 games combined and retains a healthy squad of offensive linemen, helping solidify McAdoo’s team as a value money line bet in Week 16.

The Giants are a value pick on the ML

We cannot find a fair argument that the TNF money line is where it ought to be. Recent head-to-head trends are what they are, but every year is a new deal in the NFL. This season, New York is poised to host a playoff game – and Philadelphia has little reason to challenge them.

Yes, it is a division rivalry, but the 2016-17 Blue are right at home in chippy, close contests. NYG should be a strong favorite to shut down Philadelphia’s meager ground game early and coast to a 21-7 or 24-13 win.

Bet 1-unit on NYG (-145) on the money line at Bovada.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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