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Falcons vs Redskins Over/Under

What: Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins – Week 5
When: 1:00pm EST. Sunday, October 7, 2012
Where: FedEx Field in Prince George County, Maryland

The Atlanta Falcons (4-0, 3-1 ATS) play on the road this week against the Washington Redskins (2-2, 2-2 ATS). The Falcons started this year extremely sharp and have continued that trend through four weeks. The Redskins are improved as well, and only getting better.

The Falcons come into this game with a 2-2 over/under record, while the Redskins are 4-0 in this category.

Atlanta vs. Washington Over/Under (Game Total) Odds

Teams
BetOnline.com: US Friendly
Bovada.lv: US Friendly
Spread
Money Line
O/U
Spread
Money Line
O/U
Atlanta Falcons
Washington Redskins
-3 (-110)
+3 (-110)
-160
+140
o51.5 (-110)
u51.5 (-110)
-3 (-115)
+3 (-105)
-160
+140
o51.5 (-110)
u51.5 (-110)
Vegas opened the over/under at 50.5 points, but it’s starting to come up. Online sportsbooks opened at 52 pts initially, and most are still at 52.5 pts despite an overwhelming majority of the early action coming in on the over.

So far this season the Redskins have scored plenty of points and allowed just as many. The Redskins rank 4th in points scored at 30.8 PPG, and 27th in points allowed with 30.8 PPG. However, the Washington defense improved last week and only gave up 22 points.

The Atlanta Falcons have also been one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL early on, with an average of 31 PPG (3rd). However, they also have a strong defense that has allowed just 19 PPG (8th) on average. I expect both defenses to show up on Sunday, keeping the score more limited than many are predicting.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game has been good this season (267.5 PYPG – 11th) and they’ll have success passing the ball against Washington’s secondary that ranks 31st against the pass (326.2 PYPG). The Falcons running game isn’t bad either, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, but attempting just 24 carries per game. The running game ranks 23rd in attempts, but only 18th in total yards.

If Washington can turn a couple of Falcons potential TD’s into FG’s, this game shouldn’t have any problem staying under the high total. I expect Washington to employ a run-first strategy against the Atlanta, as the Redskins rank 2nd in rushing (171 RYPG). They also rank third in time of possession, a direct result of running the ball 34.5 times per game.

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Atlanta’s defense ranks 29th against the run and they’ve allowed an average of 146.2 RYPG this season. Washington should chew up the clock, and the Falcons have been bending, but not breaking defensively. I don’t expect the Redskins to score many TD’s, but look to hold onto the ball as long as possible. RGIII should find the end zone one way or another, but he’ll take his time doing it.

Julio Jones has an injured hand, and while he’s been playing, he hasn’t been himself. Roddy White picked up the slack last week, but I wouldn’t expect another monster game from him, especially with this game being on the road in Washington.

Even though the Falcons rushing attack has only been average this season, the team has stuck with it enough to give us more hope. Atlanta will try to establish the run in this game, but the Redskins rank 10th against the run (89 RYPG).

I also like that both offenses have been protecting the football to begin the year. The Redskins and Falcons have given up 0.5 TO’s per game offensively, which ranks at the top of the NFL. This means turnovers are unlikely to cost us, and more chances to win the under.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins Over/Under Picks

The movement on the over/under has been strange on this game, and I expect it to go up a bit further. However, I like this game for anything less than 50 points, so I won’t wait long to see what happens. If it happens to drop, I’ll jump in before it goes below 52. Since the Atlanta vs. Washington over/under is still 53 (-110) at Bovada, I don’t think I have much to worry about.

Many bettors are predicting that this game will go over, but my prediction for the final score is a range of 24-20 (44) to 27-23 (50), in favor of the Falcons.

Bet the Under 53 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook

If you still like the over, the best line is 52.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

DonBest Preview of Falcons vs. Redskins

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ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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