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Colts vs. Browns Betting Preview – NFL Week 14 Lines

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns Preview

When: Sunday, December 7th 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio
Watch: Live on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts 8-4 (9-3 ATS) have been the best ATS bet in the NFL this season. The Cleveland Browns 7-5 (6-4-2 ATS) had a tough loss to the Bills (26-10) last week and they need to bounce back with a win at home to keep pace in the AFC North.

So far this season the AFC has been extremely tight and no one has anything locked up yet. Indianapolis could afford to lose a game and not be in too much trouble in the AFC South. The Browns have more motivation, but the Colts won’t just throw the game away.

Colts vs. Browns Point Spread & Over/Under Odds

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Right now 80% of the action is on the Colts to cover the spread on the road, which is a bit surprising to me. The total is high as well, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from betting the over (66%). I expect the Colts line to increase and the total will stay the same.

IND @ CLE Stats at a Glance

The Colts have the best offense in the NFL thanks to an incredible year by Andrew Luck. The Colts defense is below average, but it hasn’t cost them yet because they score so many points. The Browns defense is better than Indy, but the offense is much weaker.

Why I’m Betting on the Browns to Cover ATS

I already mentioned that the Browns will be more motivated plus they’re always stronger at home. The Colts come into this game with the best passing offense (326.2 PYPG) in the NFL, but they still haven’t been able to run effectively (112.0 RYPG – 15th).

Andrew Luck has been the best QB in the league this season. T.Y. Hilton has been playing great, but the Browns have a secondary that’s strong enough to shutdown Indy. Cleveland only allows 227.9 PYPG (8th), but they give up 132.5 RYPG (29th).

If the Browns can limit the Colts pass game they’ll have a great chance to grind out a win. However, if the Colts put up 30+ points like they’ve averaged this season – the Colts will cover. Cleveland has to try and force a turnover or two as well in this match-up.

The Colts have 22 turnovers, which is the 7th worst number in the league and the Browns rank 5th in forced turnovers (22). Cleveland should also have success on offense. The Colts defense has been giving up 257.0 PYPG (25th) and 107.8 RYPG (13th).

Cleveland hasn’t had a consistent offense this season, but they’ll gain yards at home against the Colts questionable defense. I’m not pleased that Brian Hoyer is starting at QB after being pulled last week, but I guess Johnny Manziel isn’t ready to take over.

Hoyer just has to get the football into the hands of Josh Gordon and the Browns should be fine. Cleveland’s offense comes into this match-up averaging 248.7 PYPG (12th) and 113.9 RYPG (14th). Those numbers aren’t great, but they aren’t that bad either.

I know the Browns love to run the football with the young RB’s, but they need to come out firing in this one at home if they want to try and steal this game. Allowing the Colts to hang around will be a disaster because Luck will convert on some of his drives.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns Picks

These teams don’t play each other that often. They played each other in 2011 and 2012. The teams split the series 1-1. I’m always a fan of the Browns when they’re at home because they seem to find a way to win games by grinding teams out.

Everyone is betting on the Colts to cover and I love taking the opposite of the public when the action is 80% or higher. Indy may even end up winning this game, but with the spread at +3.5 points I give the Browns at least a 60% chance to cover.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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