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Colts vs. Broncos Week 1 Betting Preview

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos – 2014 NFL Week 1

When: Sunday, September 7th 2014 at 8:30pm ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Watch: Live on NBC

The Indianapolis Colts head on the road to start the season against the Denver Broncos on Sunday night. Last year these two teams met on Sunday night and the entire country watched as the Colts beat the Broncos (39-33) as 6-point underdogs.

Broncos vs. Colts Week 1 Point Spread & Over/Under

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The point spread has been all over the place. It opened at –7 before moving under a TD (-6.5). At one point the spread was up to –9, but it has since steadied at –7.5 with 60% of the action on Denver. Bettors also like the over despite the high total.

A Quick Look Back at Last Year’s H2H Game

Andrew Luck had one of his best games against Denver last year. Luck threw for 228 passing yards (21/38) and 3 TD’s. He also rushed the football four times for 29 yards and 1 TD. The Colts had a total of 121 rushing yards, which was a lot for them.

Despite all of that, the Broncos had 429 total yards of offense while the Colts had 334 total yards. The main problem for the Broncos was turnovers. They fumbled four times (Two Lost) and Manning threw an INT. The Colts lost one fumble all game.

What’s concerning for Denver fans is that a lot of the production from the Colts game won’t be playing on Sunday. Moreno, Decker and Welker combined for 286 total yards (2 TD’s). Decker and Moreno are gone while Welker is suspended to start the season.

IND @ DEN Point Spread Analysis

Peyton Manning can’t be happy about losing Welker to suspension. His three top targets will be Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Saunders. That’s not bad, but it’s worse than last year and I expect Manning to look a bit shaky this week.

The Colts defense is still weak at LB and in the secondary. Even with the limited weapons Manning will still be able to put up points, but I also expect to see a few big stops by the Colts defense. The defensive line should be able to get some sacks on passing downs.

Andrew Luck is primed for a big season. Last season he threw a lot less interceptions than his rookie season and this year I expect him to start piling up the passing yards. Luck will have more weapons in the pass game than in his two previous seasons.

Reggie Wayne is healthy, T.Y. Hilton has emerged as a speedy receiver and the Colts also signed Hakeem Nicks. Luck will also get his TE’s involved regularly. If the WR’s can all stay on the field it’s going to make it tough for teams to focus on any one player.

Trent Richardson is on a short leash and this is his last chance to prove he can be a starting RB in the NFL. Denver is going to have a great pass with the addition of DeMarcus Ware, but teams will still be able to run the football on the Broncos front seven.

The biggest x-factor in this game is Montee Ball of the Broncos. Ball is taking over as the starting RB and is unproven in that role. A lot of people expect him to have a huge season because he’s in Manning’s offense, but that’s definitely not a guarantee.

If Ball runs the football successfully and controls the tempo of the game than Denver will control the game. The Colts needs to take the run game out of the equation. Normally you don’t want to force Manning to beat you, but he has limited WR’s this week.

Colts vs. Broncos Predictions

The point spread seems high to me and don’t think it should be over a TD. Sure, the Broncos defense will be better than last year, but the offense isn’t going to score as much either, especially these first few weeks while Welker is unable to play.

This game is on Sunday night and will be nationally televised. Both teams are going to want to start the season. I expect Denver to win the game, as they’re playing at Mile High, but I don’t see them being able to cover such a big spread against a good Colts team.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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