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Colts at Patriots: 2014 Divisional Round Playoffs Preview

When: Saturday, January 11th 2014 at 8:15pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough
Watch: Live on CBS

The New England Patriots (12-4) won the AFC East and finished with the 2nd best record in the conference. A lot of people are talking about the fact that the Patriots played a weak schedule, but they have won games against the Saints, Steelers, Broncos and Ravens.

It looked like the Indianapolis Colts were all but out of it last week in the wild card round against the Chiefs. Kansas held a 38-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, but their defense had no answer for Andrew Luck. The Colts ended up catching up and winning the game (45-44).

IND @ NE Point Spread Analysis

The Colts showed a lot of resiliency at home against the Chiefs. Indianapolis could have folded once they went down by 4 TD’s in the 2H, but they fought back hard. The Colts were able to overcome 4 turnovers, but they’ll have to clean up their game this week.

Indianapolis put up 443 passing yards (4 TD’s) and 100 rushing yards (1 TD) on KC. Now the Chiefs defense has been exposed before, but it was still a great offensive output for the Colts. Indy should have success against a weak Patriots defense as well.

New England’s defense allows 239 PYPG (18th), 134.1 RYPG (30th) and 21.1 PPG (10th). The NE defense has forced 29 turnovers, which has helped them keep opposing teams out of the endzone, but that likely won’t be enough this week against Luck and the Colts.

Offensively the Patriots should have no problem scoring as well. Jamaal Charles was injured in the 1st quarter against the Colts, yet KC was still scored 44 points. During the regular season the Pats averaged 27.8 PPG (3rd), 255.4 PYPG (10th) and 129.1 RYPG (9th).

I expect the Colts to win the turnover battle in this match-up. The Pats have forced 29 TO’s compared to the Colts 27, but during the regular season the Patriots turned the football over 20X compared to the Colts 14. Luck won’t have three INT’s again this week.

Who Will Win This Game

New England is 8-0 at home and I’m not questioning the fact that they’ll likely win. This will be a shootout and Tom Brady will pull it out in the 4th quarter, but this game will end within 3-4 points. I predict that the final score will be 42-38 for the Patriots at home.

There isn’t much of a point betting on the Pats money line unless you want to risk the juice to win a small amount. I think the better bet is betting a 2team teaser with the Patriots –1 and the Seahawks –2. I think both teams will pull out the SU victories.

NE @ IND Over/Under Analysis

The total is at O/U 53 points and it hasn’t moved at all yet early this week. I thought it would have been set a bit closer to 60, but I’ll gladly bet a unit on the over with this total. It wouldn’t surprise me if both teams ended up scoring close to 40 points apiece.

Indy allowed 378 passing yards and 150 rushing yards against a Chiefs offense that was missing Charles most of the game. The Pats defense has been allowing a lot of yards all season and that’s not likely to change, but they’ve also scored 75 points in their L2.

Player Prop Bets to Watch

There are no prop betting lines up yet for the IND @ NE match-up yet, but I still wanted to discuss some of the props that I’m waiting on. T.Y. Hilton has 379 receiving yards in his L2 games and I’ll be looking to bet over on his receiving yards total prop this week.

LeGarrette Blount has been getting more of a workload. In the Pats last 2 games Blount has 40 carries for 265 yards and 4 TD’s. It’s hard to predict how Belichick will spread the carries around this week, but I’ll be looking at the Blount props closely once released.

The last prop I’ll be betting is under the total number of sacks on Luck. During the regular season Luck was only sacked 32 times and last week the Chiefs only got to him once. Luck likes to force throws before being sacked and this prop should cash.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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