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Chargers at Broncos Betting Preview

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos – 2014 AFC Divisional Round

When: Sunday, January 12th 2014 at 4:40pm ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Watch: Live on CBS

The Denver Broncos (13-3) had the best record in the AFC and locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They take on their AFC West division rivals this weekend. The San Diego Chargers surprised many when they beat the Bengals (27-10).

San Diego was down 10-7 at halftime against Cincy, but they outscored the Bengals 20-0 in the 2H to easily win. The Chargers were fortunate that Cincinnati had 4 turnovers including a Bernard fumble in the red zone that titled the momentum to SD.

SD @ DEN Betting Lines

Odds From Bovada.

We haven’t seen much line movement on the over/under, which opened at O/U 55 points and is now O/U 54.5 points. The spread on the other hand has dropped from –10.5 in favor of the Broncos to –9 points, as roughly 65% of the action is on the Chargers.

DEN @ SD Injury Report

Denver has had a week off and they’re healthy minus Derek Wolfe who isn’t expected to play again. San Diego, however, have two big question marks. Ryan Matthews and Nick Hardwick missed practice. Matthews should play, but Hardwick is questionable.

H2H Analysis

With these two teams being division rivals they play each other twice during the regular season. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos (2012), Denver has gone 3-1 against SD, but the Chargers won the last match-up (Week 15) 27-20 at Mile High.

Manning has dominated SD since joining Denver and in the four H2H games he has thrown for 288 PYPG. Both games this season have gone under the total and I expect that trend to continue. This year the totals when these two play have been too high.

Stats at a Glance

The Broncos have the better offense by a long shot, but in a single elimination game anything can happen. We’ve seen Manning play poorly in a few games this season and the Denver defense isn’t good enough to keep them close when the offense struggles.

Both teams are even in turnover margin per game (0) and whichever team can protect the football will win. Last week Dalton played horrible, but the Chargers defense still made the most of their opportunities and they’ll need to do the same again on Sunday.

Peyton Manning vs. Philip Rivers

This game will come down to what QB outperforms the other. Both teams rank in the top five in passing yards, but Rivers has started to struggle the past month. Last week I mentioned to bet the under on Rivers passing yards and he only ended up with 128 (12/16).

The problem isn’t just Rivers, it’s also the fact that the Chargers don’t have a #1 WR. Last week TE Ladarius Green led SD in catches (3) and receiving yards (34). Manning still has to prove himself in the playoffs after last year’s loss, but I trust him more than Rivers.

Denver also has a huge edge at the WR position. Demariyus Thomas and Eric Decker both had 1000+ receiving yard seasons. There were also four players (Thomas, Decker, Wes Welker & Julius Thomas) that had over 10+ TD receptions on the year, which is insane.

Chargers vs. Broncos Predictions

I thought Cincy handed SD the game last week. Rivers didn’t play good, but the run game wasn’t bad. The Broncos beat the Chargers (28-20) by 8 points at Qualcomm earlier this year and this spread seems too big, as these two teams know each other very well.

Denver is 7-1 at home and I like them to win, but San Diego is playing great football and the team has a ton of momentum. They’ve now won five games in a row and the defense has been playing great. Denver’s defense is weak and SD will keep it close.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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