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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under Prediction – NFL Week 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(3-7) @ Atlanta Falcons(3-7)

  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta, GA
  • When: November 24, 2019 1:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Buccaneers +4.5 (-110) vs. Falcons -4.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Buccaneers (+185) vs. Falcons (-225)
  • Over / Under: Over 51.5 Points (-110) vs. Under 51.5 Points (-110)

My best over/under bet in week 12 comes from a game most won’t even watch.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8 ATS) have been the worst team ATS this season in the NFL. TB have gone over the game total in their last eight games, posting an 8O-2U record on the year.

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6 ATS) have won two consecutive games. They have gone over the total in just three games this season and the team’s last four games have finished under the game total.

Buccaneers at Falcons Betting Lines – Market Movement

Atlanta opened up as a FG (-3) favorite, but have been bet up to -4.5 points already. The movement in the point spread market makes sense based on recent performances from these two teams.

Bet on the money line, point spread, over/under and props for TB vs. ATL at Bovada ($250 Bonus).

The over/under opened up at 54.5 points, but has been bet down to 51.5 points. I’m a little surprised we’ve seen the total drop a full three points, however, this is still the highest total in week 12 action.

TB vs ATL Stats Preview

Here’s how the Bucs and Falcons match-up on paper:

Both teams have turnover problems, but the Bucs are much worse. The Bucs lead the league in TOs committed (25) and Jameis Winston leads the league in interceptions (18). Things are getting worse for Winston, as he has thrown 13 INTs in the last five games, including 4 INTs against NO last week.

Bet on Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 12 2019Winston has a left ankle sprain, but he isn’t expected to miss this game. Austin Hooper has a knee injury and missed week 11, but there’s a good chance he’ll be able to play. Devonta Freeman also missed last week’s game, but he could be back this week and that would help out the passing game.

Atlanta only have 6 INTs all season, but 4 of those INTs were last week against Carolina. The defense of the Falcons has been terrible statistically, but have played better the last two weeks. ATL held the Saints to 9 points in NO in week 10 and then held the Panthers to 3 points in CAR in week 11. Something will have to give this week in this NFC South match-up. I’m putting my money on both of the defenses struggling to stop either passing attack.

We have two of the worst passing defenses in the league. Despite struggling to win, both teams have had success airing it out. There’s going to be a ton of yards gained in this game through the air.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Head-to-Head (H2H)

The Falcons have won the last five H2H match-ups dating back to December 2016. In the last three H2H games ATL have only won by 3, 5 and 2 points. That makes the spread in this game tricky.

If the Falcons were underdogs I’d be all over them to win on the money line, but right now the odds on ATL to win SU are -225, which in my opinion is way too risky. ATL have won two games, but they still only have three wins all season and it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if TB won.

Dating back to 2016, these teams have played H2H six times and five of those games had 54+ points scored. When these two teams meet there’s typically a ton of offense and very little defense.

Buccaneers at Falcons Game Total Prediction

Not only will the TB secondary need to deal with Julio Jones (59 receptions for 882 yards and 4 TDs) and Calvin Ridley (44 receptions for 614 yards and 5 TDs), but Hooper is having a career year at TE. Hooper leads the team in receiving TDs (6) and has 608 yards on 56 receptions.

The Bucs have a great WR tandem as well. Mike Evans (58 receptions for 993 yards and 7 TDs) and Chris Godwin (63 receptions for 887 yards and 7 TDs) are both putting up huge numbers.

Everything is pointing towards this game sailing over the game total. It could go either way on the money line, but my best over/under bet for NFL week 12 is over 51.5 points in TB at ATL.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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