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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 3 Preview

Start Time: Thursday, September 18th 2014 at 8:25pm ET
Stadium: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
Station: CBS

The Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (1-1 ATS) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-2 (0-2 ATS) in an NFC South match-up on TNF. I’m confident that the Buccaneers are going to be a terrible team, but everyone is going to hammer the Falcons to cover ATS at home.

Tampa Bay lost at home to the Rams (19-17) in a game they had to win, as the Rams had to start their 3rd string QB. Atlanta went on the road and lost to the Bengals (24-10). The loss was expected, but I really didn’t expect the offense to struggle as bad as they did.

TB vs. ATL Betting Lines

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Atlanta opened up at –5.5 to –6 points depending what shop you look at, but they’ve been bet up to –7 already. Later in the week I expect this line to hit over a TD. The over/under opened at 44.5 points and is still available although most shops are at O/U 45 now.

Five Reasons to Bet on the Over

Atlanta only went 3-5 at the Georgia Dome last season because of injuries, but the Falcons still averaged 22.9 PPG at home. TB has allowed 220.5 PYPG (15th) and that has come against two back-up QB’s at home. I can’t see Ryan throwing for less than 300+ yards.

Julio Jones is back and looks like his old self, which is great news for the Falcons. Jones posted a 7-116-0 line against the Saints and a line of 7-88-1 against the Bengals. He was the lone bright spot on the offense last week and that was against a tough defense.

Doug Martin was inactive in week 2 and I expect him to sit out again. Bobby Rainey started in his place and gained 144 rushing yards on 22 carries. Atlanta is allowing 154.5 RYPG (26th) and Rainey torched them last season for 163 rushing yards (3 TD’s) in week 11.

McCown has had to go up against two tough defenses in the Panthers and Rams. He has completed 38 of 56 passes for 362 yards, 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s in two games. However, now he’s going up against a Falcons defense that’s allowing 317.5 PYPG (31st).

Gerald McCoy, the best defensive player on TB, is out with an injury. The Bucs have allowed 19.5 PPG (13th) against two back-up QB’s (Derek Anderson & Austin Davis). Atlanta has allowed 29.0 PPG (27th) and they haven’t been able to stop the run or pass.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers H2H

These two teams play each other twice every season, as they’re divisional foes. Last season the Falcons won at home (31-23) and the Buccaneers won at home (41-28). Both games sailed over the total and I’m surprised that the total this week isn’t closer to O/U 50.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Game Total Prediction

Everyone has given up on the Buccaneers offense, but this is the perfect game for them to prove everyone wrong. The Falcons have been unable to stop anyone. Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will both be able to beat up on the Falcons secondary.

The loss of McCoy is going to hurt this Bucs defense, as he is one of the leaders on the team. Heading on to the road after two tough losses at home to play an explosive offense like the Falcons is a recipe for disaster for a defense that has looked bad thus far.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons put up 30+ points on offense with Ryan having another career day at home. Atlanta’s offense is one-dimensional, but the Bucs don’t have the talent in the secondary to keep Jones and Roddy White in check.

Atlanta will likely cover the point spread in this game, but I don’t like it as much as the over. This total seems low despite the fact TB has looked terrible on offense. If the Bucs can’t score 21+ points on this Falcons defense I’ll definitely be a bit surprised.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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