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Broncos vs. Patriots Money Line Prediction

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Preview

When: Sunday, November 24th 2013 at 8:25pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Watch: Live on NBC

Two of the best teams in the AFC play on Sunday night this week, which is a welcome change. The Denver Broncos (9-1) take on the New England Patriots (7-3) in a game that won’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but one you’ll want to watch.

DEN vs. NE ML Odds

After the Broncos put a beating on the Chiefs last week I’m a bit surprised that the bookmakers have this game so close. The Pats are fresh off their Monday Night Football loss to the Panthers (24-20) and I don’t think they’ll be able to bounce back so quickly.

Can the Broncos Win Their 10th Game of the Season

If there was any question in your mind about the Broncos they should have been answered last week at home. The Chiefs are a way more complete team than the Patriots are right now. Denver is 3-1 on the road with their lone loss coming against the Colts (39-33).

No team has been able to stop the Peyton Manning led Broncos offense. Denver has scored the most points (39.8 PPG) and picked up the most offensive yards (455.5 YPG). Their lowest offensive output was last week and they still put up 27 points on KC.

Denver is missing an every down running back, but they’ve used a mix of RB’s to get the job done. They average 105.1 RYPG (20th), which is pretty good considering the focus of the offense is on passing to the multitude of receiving options on offense.

Defensively the Broncos have had some troubles, but they have a great run-stopping unit (92.7 RYPG – 4th). The Patriots are picking up 126.9 RYPG (9th) by utilizing a community backfield, but they have fumble issues and that isn’t good news against Denver.

Apart from stopping the run, the Broncos defense hasn’t done much else right this season. The team is allowing 25.5 PPG (23rd) and 279.1 PYPG (28th). Tom Brady will look to Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski to pick up big yardage on this Denver secondary.

Gronks had a TD and 59 yards on 5 receptions against Carolina. He looked good and should get more targets this week. He’ll be very tough to cover and I expect him to have his first monster game. Brady just has to be accurate, as Denver has 13 INT’s this season.

Denver may have trouble stopping Brady, but the Patriots will also struggle stopping the Broncos. New England has only allowed 19.9 PPG (7th) and 229.2 PYPG (12th). Manning will have to be on his game or else Denver will end up punting a lot in this game.

The area where New England has had problems is stopping the run (125.7 RYPG – 27th). There focus is going to be on Manning, so it’s important that the Broncos rush the football on 1st and 2nd down when the linebackers are in coverage.

New England also likes to blitz a lot and it has helped them average 3.2 sacks per game (4th). Manning has a solid o-line and has only been sacked 13 times on the season. With his nagging injury Denver has to make sure to protect him at all costs in the pocket.

Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction

The action on this game has been on the Patriots thus far, which is surprising. I guess a lot of bettors still have in their mind how well Gronks looked this past Monday against a tough Panthers defense. I do expect the Pats to score points this week, but not enough.

If you look at the H2H that may be another reason why people like the Patriots this week. NE has won the last three H2H match-ups, but Denver is exceptionally strong on offense this season. If the Chiefs can’t shutdown the Broncos the Pats definitely can’t.

I also was looking at the over in this game, but the total is currently at O/U 53.5 points and I didn’t like the line. Both teams should both get into the 30’s minimum this weekend, but I don’t like betting totals that are over 50+ points too often in the NFL.

The point spread is –2.5 points, but I think the money line is better just in case this is one of those wacky games that we’ve seen a lot of this season. Denver is better on both sides of the football and they’ve proven that they can win tough games on the road.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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