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Broncos vs. Panthers Over/Under

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
When: 1:00pm EST. Sunday. November 11, 2012
Where: Bank of America Stadium. Charlotte, North Carolina

The Carolina Panthers 2-6 (3-5 O/U) host the Denver Broncos 5-3 (5-3 O/U) this Sunday. After winning 21-13 on the road last week against the Redskins, the Panthers now have a couple of tough home games on the schedule.

Denver has won their last three games and they’re currently leading the AFC West over the Chargers. The Broncos also covered the point spread in their L3 match-ups, but with them being on the road for the 2nd week in a row I’m not betting them ATS. I am betting the over/under, and below you’ll see what I like about this bet.

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers Over/Under Odds

BetOnline.com
US Friendly
JustBet.cx
US Friendly
Spread
Money
Spread
Money
Broncos
Panthers
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
-195
+170
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
-200
+170
Over/Under
o47 (-110) / u47 (-110)
o47 (-110) / u47 (-110)

The Broncos vs. Panthers over/under opened at 48 points early this week and it’s now down to 47 at most mobile betting sites. I think the total is a little high and I’m betting the under. If you agree, I recommend getting your bet in now before the o/u goes down any further. If you like the over, you might want to wait until Sunday and see if you can get it at 46 or 46.5.

Will the Broncos / Panthers Go Over or Under?

The Carolina Panthers have been playing very well defensively the past four games, allowing an average of 19.8 PPG. The Denver Broncos offense has been putting up good numbers (292.6 PYPG – 3rd & 106.9 RYPG – 17th), but the Panthers defense has been stingy.

The Panthers have struggled against the run (119 RYPG – 20th), but they’ve stopped the pass well (224 PYPG – 13th). Against the Broncos the biggest thing you need to do is disrupt Manning, and I think the Panthers will be able to do that at home.

On offense, the Panthers average 228.6 PYPG (17th), 116.2 RYPG (12th) and 18.6 PPG (27th). After a good rookie season a lot of pressure has been put on Cam Newton, and he hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations over halfway through the season.

Both teams run the ball roughly 45% of their offensive plays and neither team should gain too much on the ground. The Broncos don’t rush the football that well and Manning is going to make a mistake or two against this Panthers secondary.

The Broncos are a T12 defense in the league and should be able to hold the Panthers to under 21 points. With the way Carolina is playing on defense, they should also be able to hold the Broncos offense to 24 points or less. I’m expecting a total under 45, and with the over/under currently at 47, the under is looking good to me.

The key for this game to stay under the total is the Panthers defense limiting Manning and his WR’s (Decker & Thomas). It hasn’t been easy this season getting pressure on Manning, but the Panthers rank 4th in the NFL with an average of 3 sacks per game.

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers O/U Prediction

Bet Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline

Both teams will look to get the run game going, and based on how these defenses are playing against the run shouldn’t be too much of a problem. If the Panthers can pressure Manning this should be a low scoring close battle, and the best bet is on the under.

Denver vs. Carolina Over/Under: One More Thing to Consider

The only thing that bothers me about this Broncos vs Panthers over/under pick is that a 27-21 game goes over. Betting the under, you’re hoping neither team scores more than 24, and the Broncos could easily do that. If I’m wrong about the Panthers being able to limit Manning and cause him to make mistakes, this game will go over the total of 47 points.

When one team has an offense like the Broncos have right now, I normally bet the over at 47. In this situation, I’m hoping the Panthers defense can step it up and focus on the Broncos passing game, forcing Manning into mistakes and the Broncos into running the ball. Recent Panthers games tell me they can do that, but recent Broncos games also tell me they have the potential to score 27+.

I don’t normally hedge my recommendations like this, but I don’t want to lead anyone in a direction they aren’t comfortable with. 47 on the Denver vs Carolina over/under is close, and I think we’re taking a bit more gamble on this bet than some others.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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