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Broncos at Steelers ATS Picks and Best Bets for NFL Week 15

Bet on Broncos at Steelers NFL Week 15Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

Kick-Off: Sunday, December 20th 2015 at 4:25pm ET
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: CBS

In the most intriguing game this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5 (7-4-2 ATS) will host the Denver Broncos 10-3 (7-4-2 ATS) in a game with playoff implications in the AFC. The Broncos are likely going to win the AFC West or at least earn a wild card. Pittsburgh are unlikely to catch the Bengals in the AFC North, but they’re in the wild card hunt.

Pittsburgh are playing better football – winning four of their last five games and two in a row. The offense has woken up with two big performances. The Steelers beat Indianapolis (45-10) in week 13 and Cincinnati (33-20) in week 14. Denver had a 3-game winning streak snapped at home last week – losing to the Raiders (15-12) in a game they should have won.

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Latest NFL week 15 odds for the Broncos vs. Steelers

Plenty of bets are coming in on the over (80%+) and that trend will continue into the week. Pittsburgh are seeing about 65% of the point spread bets, but we’re not going to see much movement on the spread.

Broncos vs. Steelers point spread picks

Why are the Broncos +6 underdogs against the Steelers? This betting line makes little sense to me. Brock Osweiler lost his first NFL game as a starter – he’s now 3-1 since taking over for the injured Peyton Manning. Despite losing to Oakland, I thought Osweiler played well. He completed 35/51 passes for 308 yards, 0 TDs and 0 INTs. Turnovers still cost Denver, though, as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both lost fumbles. Denver come into this game with a 6-1 road record and 6-3 AFC record.

Pittsburgh are 4-1 in their last five games with the only loss coming against the surging Seahawks. This is a huge game because the Steelers are at risk of missing the playoffs, as the Jets and Chiefs are both on big winning streaks. Ben Roethlisberger has been on a mission since coming back from injury, plus DeAngelo Williams is filling in nicely for the injured Le’Veon Bell. Williams has 773 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs on 164 carries, while also hauling in 27 receptions for 270 yards.

The Steelers average 26.5 PPG (5th), 284.8 PYPG (5th) and 120.1 RYPG (9th) on offense. They’re extremely balanced and can put up points in a hurry. However, they’re running into the best defense in the NFL this week. The Broncos only allow an average of 17.3 PPG (1st), 188.2 PYPG (1st) and 84.3 RYPG (3rd). Denver have only allowed one RB to rush for 100+ yards this season and that was Jamaal Charles (125 Yards) back in week two. Pittsburgh will need to rely on Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.

Defensively, the Steelers only allow 20.0 PPG (11th) and 88.3 RYPG (6th), but they rank 31st in passing yards allowed (279.0 PYPG), which means the pressure will be on Osweiler. If he plays like last week, the Broncos will be fine, as long as Thomas and Sanders step up their level of play and avoid fumbling the football. On paper, the Broncos rank 18th in points scored (21.6 PPG), passing yards (239.9 PYPG) and rushing yards (99.3 RYPG). However, Denver hasn’t cracked 20+ points in four of their last five games.

These two teams haven’t played since 2012, but the Broncos are 4-1 in the last five H2H games, but that only includes one win at Heinz Field. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven H2H games too. Not only do the numbers point to Denver covering against the spread, but the trends do as well. Osweiler will have a chance to throw for 300+ passing yards again against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. With Denver still trying to lock up their division, I expect them to win this game.

Steelers vs. Broncos over/under predictions

The over is 5-1 in the last six H2H games and these teams have combined for 50+ points in the five games that went over. Denver have been terrible on the ground the past two weeks and the game plan will be to allow Osweiler to air it out. Big Ben and the Steelers won’t mind getting into a shootout with Denver and this total is a little low, even with the Broncos recent offensive struggles. Denver have the best defense, but the Steelers passing game is good enough to put points on the scoreboard.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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