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Bet on the Saints vs. Cowboys Going Over the Total in Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Week 4 Preview

Start Time: Sunday, September 28th 2014 at 8:30pm ET
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Broadcast: NBC

The Dallas Cowboys 2-1 (2-1 ATS) hosts the New Orleans Saints 1-2 (1-2 ATS) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday night. The Saints have been playing poorly to open the season, but a game against a weak Cowboys defense might be enough to get them on track.

Both of these teams won last week, but neither were impressive. The Saints beat the Vikings (20-9), but the game was close until a late 4th quarter TD. Dallas was down 21-0 before they could blink, but they fought back to beat the Rams (34-31).

Latest Saints vs. Cowboys Betting Lines

Bet on NO @ DAL at the Bovada Sportsbook and claim a $250 cash bonus for week 4.

We’re not going to see this line move off of –3 (Saints) this week unless a big injury is announced. With the way the Saints have been playing I feel there is some value on the Cowboys ML at home, but I’m targeting the over/under in this week 4 match-up.

NO @ DAL Stats Pack

These two teams are very similar although the Saints are definitely the better team on paper. One area where the Cowboys have a big edge is rushing offense. Despite matching up well against each other, the Cowboys have struggled H2H against the Saints.

The Saints won last year (49-17) and the year prior in OT (34-31). In those two games the Saints gained 1187 yards on offense. Both of the games had an over/under of 54 points and both went over. The Saints also covered ATS in both of the games.

Three Reasons I’m Betting on the Under

Dallas has the 3rd ranked rushing offense (156.7 RYPG) and they seem to be committed to pounding it with DeMarco Murray. Murray has rushed for 100+ yards in each of the Cowboys three games for a total of 385 rushing yards and 3 TD’s.

When the Cowboys can run the football it takes pressure off of Tony Romo, as he doesn’t have to throw 50+ times. The Saints allow 101.3 RYPG (10th) and Murray will have success at home. That’ll eat up the clock and keep this from being a shootout.

The Saints are one of the best teams in the red zone, but last week the Vikings were able to limit them in NO. Dallas is going to give up yards, as they allow 250.3 PYPG (21st) and 110.0 RYPG (15th), but they’re only allowing 23.0 PPG (18th).

Part of the reason they gave up points in previous games was because of turnovers by Romo. The Cowboys defense has allowed teams 2.7 red zone scoring attempts per game (5th). Dallas will bend, but I expect the defense to hold up in Arlington.

New Orleans ranks 6th in rushing yards (140.3 RYPG), but last week they only picked 108 yards on the ground against the Vikes who have the worst run defense in the NFL. The injury to Mark Ingram is hurting the Saints offense, as it makes them one-dimensional.

You need a RB that can pound the rock in between the tackles to pick up first downs. Last week the Saints went 6 of 15 on 3rd down conversions (40%) and 0 for 2 on red zone attempts. Dallas can sell out on the pass and clog up the middle of the field.

Saints vs. Cowboys Prediction

It’s still early in the week, but 90% of the early action has been on the over. This total opened up too high in my opinion based on how these two teams are playing. As long as Romo doesn’t throw multiple interceptions the under has a strong chance to hit.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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