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Bet on the Dolphins to Beat the Bills on TNF in Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Preview

Start Time: Thursday, November 13th 2014 at 8:30pm ET
Location: Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Station: Watch Live on NFL Network

The Buffalo Bills 5-4 (4-5 ATS) were terrible on offense at home last week in a loss to the Chiefs (17-13). The Miami Dolphins 5-4 (4-5 ATS) lost in the final minute against the Lions (20-16). They were unable to hold defensively, but the offense cost them the game.

Ryan Tannehill threw a costly interception in the red zone and the Dolphins also had a fumble. Buffalo was also killed because of the costly turnovers they had against KC. Kyle Orton didn’t turn the football over, but the Bills lost three fumbles in the game.

Latest Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Lines

Bet on this AFC East Rivalry at the Bovada Sportsbook ($250 Cash Bonus).

Early action has come in on the Dolphins and I expect this point spread to increase by at least a full point before kick-off. The total in this match-up seems a little low, but these two teams know each other well and both of them are strong defensively.

BUF @ MIA Stats at a Glance

Both defenses are strong and rank closely this season, but the Dolphins are much better offensively than the Bills. The Dolphins are a good home team as well and the Bills play worse on the road, but this game will still be relatively close like most AFC East games.

Why I’m Betting on Miami to Cover ATS Against Buffalo

Miami is 2-1 at home against Buffalo in the last three games although the Bills are 3-0 in the L3 games in the H2H series. Earlier this year the Bills dominated Miami in Buffalo (29-10), but I’m confident that the Dolphins will be able to get revenge on primetime.

Neither of these teams plays that often on primetime and both will want to show the country that they’re for real this year. Both are still in the wild card race and could even win the AFC East still although the Patriots seem to have the division under control.

I’m betting on the Dolphins because of the edge they have on offense. Buffalo is averaging 230.8 PYPG (18th) and 100.2 RYPG (20th) and they’re banged up. C.J. Spiller is still out and Fred Jackson will be on a limited snap count again due to the short week.

Tannehill has played well, but Miami is only averaging 222.9 PYPG (20th). The run game has been much better, as the Dolphins are gaining 127.6 RYPG (7th). Lamar Miller is averaging 4.8 YPC on 110 carries and Tannehill has been running the football lately.

Both defenses rank in the top 10 this season and yards may be hard to come by in this one. Miami is allowing 210.8 PYPG (2nd) and 99.0 RYPG (10th) while Buffalo allows 224.6 PYPG (7th) and 96.1 RYPG (8th). These defenses have been great all year.

I have more faith in the Dolphins offense to put up points at home and that’s why I’ll be betting on them to cover the point spread on TNF. The Dolphins are also healthier at this point in the season and that’s always important when teams have a short week.

Turnovers could play a role in this game, but that’s tough to handicap. Both defenses have forced 19 turnovers and both offenses have 14 turnovers. As long as Miami protects the football at home they’ll win a TD+ and easily cover the current point spread.

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 11 Picks

Buffalo is banged up on offense and that was evident last week. Sammy Watkins played, but was far from 100% on the field. Orton needs Watkins healthy because the Bills have limited weapons in the pass game, especially with Spiller injured for the season.

Miami can send the house at the Bills o-line this week. They have to stop the run and pressure Orton into making quick decisions, so that he’s unable to scan the entire field and pick out the open receiver. Miami is the better team, at home and wants revenge.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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