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Bet on the Colts to Cover ATS Against the Ravens in Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview – NFL Week 5

When: Sunday, October 5th 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
Watch: Live on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts 2-2 (3-1 ATS) are on a 2-game winning streak and they host the Baltimore Ravens 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS). These two teams played in last year’s playoffs and the Ravens won 24-9, so you can bet that Andrew Luck will be out for revenge on Sunday.

Baltimore lost in week 1 to the Bengals (23-16) on the road, but they’ve strung together three wins in a row over the Steelers (26-6), Browns (23-21) and Panthers (38-10). The Colts beat the Jaguars (44-17) and Titans (41-17), but both of these teams are bad.

Latest Point Spread, ML & O/U Odds

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The Colts opened up as a –3 point favorite at home, but early action has pushed the spread up to –3.5 points already. I don’t expect this number to drop. The over/under is up a ½ point since being released and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went up another full point.

BAL @ IND Stats at a Glance

Baltimore is a team that’s getting it done on both sides of the football right now. The Colts offense has been great, but the defense is questionable at best. Indy’s defense has played better the last two weeks, but they allowed 30.5 PPG against Denver and Philly.

Ravens vs. Colts Match-Up Analysis

You can throw out the H2H trends in this game because Luck has only played the Ravens once last year in the playoffs. When it’s win or go home teams have a different mentality and the pressure is on, but in a week 5 match-up this isn’t a do or die situation.

Luck is having a monster season. He’s leading the NFL in passing yards (1305) and passing TD’s (13). Seven players on the Colts have 10+ receptions already this season, which is incredible. Luck has his WR’s, TE’s and RB’s involved in the passing game.

The Colts rank 1st in passing yards (326.0 PYPG) and 18th in rushing yards (118.0 RYPG). Trent Richardson leads the team in carries (61) and rushing yards (203), but he’s only averaging 3.3 YPC whereas Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging 5.4 YPC (184 Rushing Yards).

It looks like Baltimore won’t miss Ray Rice, as the Ravens rank 9th in rushing yards (134.5 RYPG). Justin Forsett leads the way with 44 carries for 255 yards and 2 TD’s while rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro has carried the football 33 times for 149 yards and 2 TD’s.

Both of these teams can stop the run, as the Ravens allow 82.5 RYPG (7th) and the Colts allow 104.8 RYPG (11th). They can stop the run, but both teams are struggling to stop the pass. Indy allows 251.2 PYPG (21st) while the Ravens are allowing 260.2 PYPG (24th).

These two defenses are giving up a lot of big plays through the air as well. Indy has allowed 15 passes of 20+ yards (4th Worst) while the Ravens have allowed 14 passes of 20+ yards (8th Worst). I expect both of these teams to reel off some big yardage plays.

Ravens vs. Colts Point Spread Pick

I’m betting on Luck to get revenge against the Ravens at home. Luck has looked great all season, but the defense hasn’t held up too well against potent offenses (Eagles & Broncos). I don’t expect Baltimore to have as much success on offense as those two teams.

Baltimore has a more balanced offense than the Colts, but these two defenses can stop the run. That’ll mean that the team that is able to establish the passing attack will likely win and I’d put my money on Luck over Joe Flacco almost every time.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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