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Bet on Michigan State to upset Duke in the Final Four

Bet Michigan State vs. Duke#7 Michigan State Spartans vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils

When: Saturday, April 4th 2015 at 6:05pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
Watch: TBS

TOM Izzo never disappoints this time of the year and he somehow has his Spartans in the Final Four. Mike Krzyzewski has more wins (1016) in college basketball than any other coach in history.

This is truly a Final Four battle between two of the best coaches ever.

Duke have been great during March Madness – they’ve yet to allow more than 57 points in a game. The Blue Devils dominated in the Elite Eight against the high-scoring Zags (66-52). The Spartans knocked off a familiar foe in Louisville (76-70 OT) in the Elite Eight.

These two teams are very similar – they shoot the basketball well and play strong on-ball defense.

WHERE TO BET ON THE FINAL FOUR: Where you bet will depend upon where you live. Bovada.lv is an American-only sportsbook that’s offering new bettors a $250 free bet and Bodog.eu is a Canadian-only betting site offering handicappers a $100 free bet.

Final Four betting lines in MSU vs. Duke

The public has been hammering Duke and I don’t blame them. Jahlil Okafor will be the most dominant player on the court, but MSU play great team basketball. Roughly 80% of bets have been on Duke to win on the money line and to cover the point spread.

Expected starting line-ups

2015 March Madness Final Four Betting at Bovada.lv

Bet on the Final Four

Duke Blue Devils:

Michigan State Spartans:

Duke vs. MSU betting preview

These teams last played each other in the ACC Big Ten Challenge in 2013 and Duke won by 10 points (79-69). The last time these two met during March Madness was in 2011 and Duke narrowly escaped with a third round win by only two points (73-71).

Let’s analyze how these two offenses have performed throughout the entire season, including every tournament game.

As you can see – Duke is the stronger team offensively. Duke also shoots the basketball better, as they rank 3rd in FG% (50.2%), while the Spartans rank 32nd in FG% (47.1%). Duke can shoot the 3-ball too, as they’re ranked 25th in 3-PT% (39.0%).

Duke have been winning without too much help from Okafor the last two games either. Okafor averaged 23.5 PPG in the first two games of the tournament, but in the last two games he has only averaged 7.5 PPG on 7 of 16 shooting from the field.

Winslow has stepped up in Okafor’s place with two strong performances. Winslow is averaging 18.5 PPG in Duke’s last two.

The Spartans are no slouches either on offense though. Trice is averaging 19.8 PPG, 4.0 APG and 3.3 RPG in the tourney. Valentine has 15+ points in three of four games for MSU, but unfortunately Dawson has cooled down in the Spartans last two games.

Duke may have the better offense, but the Spartans are a feistier defensive team. MSU don’t force a lot of turnovers, but they play great on-ball defense. The guards have been exceptional, but the Spartans will be in tough against Okafor.

MSU can’t stop everyone, as Duke presents numerous mismatches. I believe the Spartans should focus on defending the 3-point line. The Blue Devils are great from beyond the arc and the Spartans won’t be able to keep up if they allow a lot of 3-pointers.

Spartans vs. Blue Devils predictions

I’m betting 2 units on MSU to cover the +5 points spread and 1 unit on the Spartans money line at 2/1 odds. The public still doesn’t believe in Izzo and the Spartans, but I expect them to win SU in a game that comes down to the very last play.

Duke have been making good teams look silly, but the Spartans are unique. This team never gives up, they elevate their play when under pressure and they have multiple players that can takeover a game on the offensive end of the court.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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