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Bayern vs Liverpool: UEFA CL 2nd Leg Odds and Prediction

Liverpool(3-3-1) @ Bayern Munich (4-0-3)

  • Where: Allianz Arena. Munich, Germany
  • When: March 13, 2019 1:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Bayern (-0.5)
  • Moneyline: Bayern (+115) vs Liverpool (+230) vs Draw (+265)
  • Over / Under: Over 2.5 (-140) vs Under 2.5 (+115)

You see a lot of myths about sports gambling posted on social media by people who should know better, claiming that “the action doesn’t matter” and that any attempt to exploit the public’s betting habits is pointless.

What could be further from the truth? If the media buzz drives some photogenic Olympic Games underdog’s line way too short and causes a grizzled veteran’s odds to swell to a nice payoff on the winner, it’s absurd not to think that kind of action should inform how high-rollers and sharks (and household handicappers) play the event.

It’s also fun to figure out where the public stands on a favorite’s chances by watching the moneylines.

Bovada’s betting lines on Liverpool’s trip to Munich for the 2nd leg of a crucial Champions League tie on March 13th seem steady, solid, and unremarkable. Yet even in the relative lack of action there is insight.

Some sportsbooks actually offered opening odds in which Liverpool was an underdog to win but a favorite to advance. The odds managers and clients at Bovada tend to trust Mohamed Salah and the Reds in a penalty-kick tiebreaker scenario, but not enough to give Liverpool the favorites’ nod in either market. The Premier League side is a (-105) underdog to advance and a (+230) ‘dog on the ML.

Reading the Reds

Salah seems to be good for a goal in almost every match, whether he is scoring it himself (usually) or dishing off in the box. The phenomenal 26-year-old scored again on February 9th as the Reds thrashed Cherries 3-0.

Since that day, the Liverpool attack has been like a mighty dammed-up river. Occasionally it breaks through in rapids, before the opposition pours new concrete.

Then 0-0 UEFA result against Bayern could have been written off as a raw deal. Ball passing was not phenomenal, but the Reds managed at least to challenge Bayern keeper Manuel Neuer. The Bundesliga club did not muster a single on-target shot as the quartet of Alexander-Arnold – Matip – Fabinho – Robertson held firm on the backline of Jürgen Klopp’s 4-4-3.

Then the Reds stepped onto the pitch to face United in a vital Premier League kickoff. Tottenham lost over the weekend, giving Klopp’s side a colossal opportunity to pull away from at least one contender for the 2018-19 crown. Supporters at Old Trafford were instead treated to another 0-0 draw.

Liverpool’s attack is firing on almost all cylinders but still missing chances at the tail-end. It is not as if the side is failing to get out from the back altogether, or not spending any time around the opposing keeper.

Fabinho moved back to the midfield against Man United to make room for larger-than-life defender Virgil van Dijk, who would score twice in a follow-up 5-0 clobbering of Watford. But the scoring dried up again in a 0-0 draw with Everton last weekend – the 3rd out of 4 matches with the same low-key result for the Premier League giants.

Bayern Could Need Bayer

It is a mild shock that we are in late February and talking about Bayern Munich getting distracted by its domestic club league. The Bavarians began the season as strong favorites to win Bundesliga again, however, Dortmund may be poised challenge and rip the crown away in 2019.

Bayern keeps winning while being led by striker Robert Lewandowski and one of the best keepers of the modern era in Neuer. But the team is having trouble catching Die Schwarzgelben, which have only lost once on the season.

A strong stand from the Bayern backline was able to hold off the Reds in the maiden UEFA leg. Slight right-back Joshua Kimmich did take a yellow card.

The big question is would a legendary club really suffer from a lack of focus in the Champions League due to a domestic league battle? Nah. But having to chase a team that never loses can lead to frustration and exhaustion. We just do not know if it will catch up to Bayern by mid-March.

Click here to bet on the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 at Bovada Sportsbook.

Bayern vs Liverpool: Prediction and Moneyline Pick

The line on Bayern to win (+115) is a little too short, while the line on Bayern to advance (-125) is a little too long. I’m liking Liverpool on the 3-way moneyline or Bayern to qualify for the quarterfinals.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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