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Alabama vs. Auburn Betting Lines

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #4 Auburn Tigers Preview

When: Saturday, November 30th 2013 at 3:30pm ET
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama
Watch: Live on CBS

The Alabama Crimson Tide 11-0 (7-0 SEC) have their destiny in their own hands this week. This is their last regular season game and if they want to have a chance to play in the National Championship this year they’ll need to beat the Auburn Tigers 10-1 (6-1 SEC).

Alabama has won two straight National Championships and they’re well on their way to making it three in a row. However, they will face a tough test on Saturday against their biggest rival. If this game ends up being a shootout I think Auburn could pull the upset.

Crimson Tide vs. Tigers Betting Lines

This line opened up at –10.5 points in favor of Alabama and the point spread is already up to –11 points at Bovada. I don’t expect to see this line move much more and I’m happy getting +11 points on Auburn. The total opened at O/U 54.5 points and hasn’t moved.

View live odds at the Bovada Sportsbook.

How Auburn Can Upset Alabama

Auburn ranks #2 in the nation in rushing yards (320.3 RYPG) and the team relies heavily on their run game. Tre Mason leads Auburn in carries (208), rushing yards (1153) and touchdowns (17), but QB Nick Marshall is also a huge threat once he’s out of the pocket.

Marshall has as many rushing TD’s as he does passing TD’s (9) this season and he’s closing in on 1000 rushing yards. In the past Bama have had problems against mobile QB’s. This season the Crimson Tide has been excellent at stopping the run (91.1 RYPG – 4th).

Alabama beat Texas A&M (49-42) earlier this year, but Manziel rushed for nearly 100 rushing yards. I think Mason will pick up yards, but if Auburn wants a chance to be in this game in the 4th quarter they need Marshall to get out of the pocket and run the football.

Auburn doesn’t have the same amount of talent in the trenches as Alabama. The Tigers defense has allowed 161.9 RYPG (59th) and if they want to beat Alabama they need to limit the Crimson Tide running backs to a minimum of 3 yards per carry during the game.

T.J Yeldon leads the Bama rushing attack with 164 carries for 1022 yards (6.2 Avg.) and 12 TD’s. Kenyan Drake has 88 carries on the year for 661 yards (7.5 Avg.) and 8 TD’s. If these two come near their average per carry it’ll be a long game for Auburn fans.

Shutting down the Bama running game isn’t enough to win. Marshall has to meet or exceed the stat line that McCarron puts up this weekend. This season Alabama has averaged 233.3 PYPG (62nd) while Auburn has gained an average of 179.6 PYPG (104th).

There is no doubt that McCarron is the better passer at this point in their careers, but Marshall has shown that he can do more than just run the football. Alabama also has the edge at WR, so the Auburn passing defense (268.4 PYPG – 105th) will have to step up.

Crimson Tide vs. Tigers Best Bet

The last two years Alabama has dominated this series. Last year they covered –34 points by winning 49-0 at home and in 2011 Bama covered a –21.5 point spread with a 42-14 win. However, those were “down” years for Auburn and the team is much different now.

When Auburn was playing well (2009/2010) they played two tough games against Bama and they covered both games. With Auburn being at home in this match-up and the fact they have a mobile QB I really think the Tigers will surprise people and cover the spread.

This game is hard to predict, but the game plan for Auburn is extremely simple. They need their defense to hold up and they have to get their running game going early on in order to let Marshall ease into his game without having added pressure on him.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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