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AFC Championship Odds: Patriots vs. Broncos Money Line Picks

AFC Championship Game BettingNew England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Preview

When: Sunday, January 24th 2016 at 3:00pm ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Watch: CBS

THE Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots advanced with a home win against Kansas City (27-20), while the Broncos beat Pittsburgh (23-16) at Mile High. These teams played each other in week 12 and Denver beat New England (30-24) in OT.

As everyone should know, Peyton Manning has taken over the starting QB role in the NFL playoffs. Manning didn’t turn it over in the divisional round, but he only completed 21/37 pass attempts for 222 yards and 0 TDs. Tom Brady performed much better last week, as he completed 28/42 pass attempts for 302 yards and 2 TDs. Brady didn’t have any turnovers either.

Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship betting lines

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Nearly all of the early action has been coming in on the Patriots to win SU and cover ATS. Over 80% of the bets have been on NE and I’m sure the public will continue betting them, despite the point spread going up a 0.5-point. The action on the over/under is split down the middle, which surprises me a bit, as the total is low, considering these teams always score a ton in H2H games.

Stats pack

The match-up everyone is looking forward to is between the Patriots passing offense and the Broncos passing defense. Can Brady move the chains consistently against the best secondary in the league? There’s little chance either team will be able to establish the running game, so the pressure will be on the two veteran QBs to come through in what should be a great game.

Patriots at Broncos playoff predictions

Unless the point spread drops to -2.5 or -3 points, I’m going to bet on the Patriots ML (-170). Sure, we’re paying some juice, but this is going to be a close game and I believe the game will be won by 3 points. The Broncos is legit and with the injuries to the Patriots o-line, they’re going to have some trouble protecting Brady in the pocket when he drops back to pass.

Brady has Julian Edelman back, though, and he’s a blitz killer. Edelman can turn a short route into a big play every time he touches the football. He had 10 receptions for 100 yards (16 Targets) against the Chiefs. He didn’t find the end zone, but Rob Gronkowski hauled in two TD passes. The Broncos won’t have an answer for Gronks and Edelman.

Denver beat the Patriots in OT, as I mentioned previously, but Edelman was injured at that time. Gronkowski hauled in 6 catches for 88 yards and 1 TD in that game, despite Edelman being out. The key for NE is to shutdown the run game and force Manning to beat them through the air. In the first H2H game, the Broncos rushed for 179 yards and 3 TDs and 32 carries.

There’s little reason to expect this game to go under the total. These teams have played H2H seven times since 2011 and six of those games have had over 50 points. We’re going to see some points scored and we don’t need many to hit 44 points. If the Patriots can open up an early lead, the Broncos will need to start airing it out and give up on chewing up the clock with the run game.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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