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49ers vs. Saints Money Line Prediction – NFL Week 14

San Francisco 49ers(10-2) @ New Orleans Saints(10-2)

  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans, LA
  • When: December 8, 2019 1:00 pm EST
  • Spread: 49ers +3 (-120) vs. Saints -3 (+100)
  • Moneyline: 49ers (+125) vs. Saints (-145)
  • Over / Under: Over 44 (-110) vs. Under 44 (-110)

This is the best game of the week and has huge playoff implications.

The New Orleans Saints (8-4 ATS) clinched the NFC South with a win against the Falcons (26-18) on Thanksgiving Day. However, they’re still fighting for home field advantage during the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers (7-4-1 ATS) are coming off a close loss to the Ravens (20-17). The Niners are fighting with the Seahawks for the NFC West title, which will likely take until week 17 to decide.

Both of these teams are going to make the playoffs in the NFC, but there’s still lots to play for.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Lines

The Saints opened up at -3 points and there hasn’t been any movement yet on the spread. The total opened up at 45.5 points, but has been bet down to 44 points at Bovada ($250 NFL Bonus).

NO should definitely be favored. Not only are they playing at the Superdome where they’re 5-1, but they’ve had more time to recover since they played on Thursday. The 49ers had to play in the rain against Baltimore on Sunday and now have to travel this week for another road game.

While I believe the Saints should be favored, I want to note that the Niners are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season. When favored by a FG or more, the Saints are just 4-3 ATS this season.

49ers at Saints Preview and Stats

Let’s take a look at how these two teams stack up against each other:

The 49ers have been better on both sides of the football this season. The offense has been able to run all over most defenses. Even last week against the Ravens run defense (94.9 RYPG – 6th), SF ran for 174 yards and 1 TD. The Saints might limit SF, but won’t shut the run game down completely.

You can bet the Niners are going to run the football often if they can. The less time Brees has to operate, the better. Matt Breida is expected to be back at RB this week too.

Why I’m Betting on the 49ers to Defeat the Saints in Week 14

Lamar Jackson had just enough heroics to beat the Niners defense last week. How do you beat the Saints? You need to be able to shutdown Brees, which is exactly what the 49ers will be able to do.

SF at NO Betting Preview for Week 14SF have the best passing defense in the NFL and it’s not even close. They shutdown every position too. They rank #1 in passing yards allowed to WRs, TEs and RBs, which doesn’t happen often.

Part of the reason for that success is the pass rush, which ranks #1 in sacks (3.8 SPG).

Arik Armstead leads the team with 10 sacks, but there are three other players with 6.5+ sacks. SF also rank #4 in takeaways with 24 (11 INTs / 13 Fumbles). Richard Sherman leads the team with 3 INTs.

Teams have been able to run on the 49ers, but the Saints run game isn’t great. Alvin Kamara only has 1 rushing TD all season, while the entire team only has 7 rushing TDs.

I don’t think the 49ers will be too worried about the run game. The major focus on defense is going to be limiting Michael Thomas who already has 110 receptions for 1290 yards and 6 TDs.

From week 7 to week 12, Thomas had 100+ receiving yards in five consecutive games, but last week the Falcons were able to hold him to 6 catches 48 yards, so it’s possible to shut him down.

49ers vs. Saints Over/Under Prediction

The H2H trends point towards this game going over, but I see it playing out differently.

San Francisco are going to try and eat up the clock with the run game. They know Brees has the edge over Jimmy Garoppolo and they need to keep him off the field as much as possible.

The Saints offense hasn’t had to play a defense like the Niners yet. If Brees gets hit a couple times early on and the Niners smother Thomas, I can see Brees getting frustrated.

My prediction is that the 49ers win the game by a score of 20-17 on the road.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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