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49ers vs. Rams Week 4 TNF Over/Under Betting

San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams – Week 4 Preview

Start: Thursday, September 26th 2013 at 8:25pm ET
Where: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri
Live: Watch on NFL Network

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) have looked very poor on offense to begin the season. The Niners have struggled to score points and if the offense is able to get on track this could be a long season for a team that made the NFL Super Bowl just last year.

The St. Louis Rams (1-2) won in week 1 at home, but have looked terrible in their last two road games. It’ll be interesting to see what Rams team shows up this week at the Edward Jones Dome, but based on recent H2H meetings I expect this to be a good match-up.

49ers vs. Rams Game Total Odds

With both teams struggling the bookmakers have opened the Niners up as –3 point road favorites. The over/under is set at 42 points right now and I think that’s the best market to focus on in this match-up, as I could make a case for either team winning this game.

Will the Offense or Defense Shine in This Week 4 TNF Game?

Last season these two teams played twice and both match-ups needed overtime, which is extremely rare. Both teams tied after OT at Candlestick Park (24-24) and then later in the season the Rams stole a victory away from SF at Edward Jones Dome (16-13).

So far these two teams have struggled to score points. The 49ers have averaged just 14.7 PPG (29th) and they were terrible at home against the Colts in a 27-7 loss on Sunday. The Niners only gained 254 total yards on offense against an average Colts defense.

St. Louis is averaging 19.3 PPG (23rd), but they could only manage 1 TD against the Cowboys on the road. Part of the problem against Dallas was that Bradford had no time in the pocket and was sacked six times. That shouldn’t happen against the 49ers this week.

San Francisco is depleted from injuries. It looks like Patrick Willis may miss this game and Aldon Smith is definitely ruled out. SF has depth on defense, but it’s still going to be tough. I expect the Rams to score 21+ points this week and I’ll explain why.

St. Louis has looked terrible on offense the last two weeks, but at home they scored 27 points on a stingy Cardinals defense. This is a completely different team at home on offense. Bradford looks more comfortable playing in the dome compared to on the road.

Important Match-Up Battles That Will Decide the Game

Daryl Richardson hurt himself on the opening play last week against Dallas and it looks like Isaiah Pead will start. Pead had 6 carries for 20 yards against the Cowboys, but that’s because they were down big early. He also caught 7 passes for 43 yards in week 3.

Pead will have a chance to shine this week, as the 49ers front seven on defense is depleted. San Francisco has allowed an average of 138 RYPG (29th) and the Rams need to rush the football 25+ times in this game to take some of the pressure off Bradford.

Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense is averaging just 216.7 PYPG (23rd) despite throwing for over 400+ passing yards against GB in week 1. Look for Kaepernick to bounce back with a good week against the Rams secondary that allows 288 PYPG (23rd).

Anquan Boldin has been held relatively quiet the last two weeks, but he should have success against the Rams. Boldin will be able to break coverage in the secondary. I think Vernon Davis will have a big day as well due to his size and he’ll haul in 5+ receptions.

SF vs. STL Week 4 O/U Prediction

The 49ers are allowing 28 PPG (25th) while the Rams are allowing 28.7 PPG (26th). I expect that from the Rams, but not from SF. Part of the problem is that the offense hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently and that puts more pressure on the defense.

Against the Rams the 49ers offense shouldn’t have as much problem moving the football. Both teams are going to have success with moving the football. Both teams have a negative turnover differential (Rams –1 / 49ers –4) and we should see some turnovers.

Turnovers almost always lead to points in the NFL and this total seems way too low for a Thursday Night Football game. Both teams are desperate to win and the Rams play better at home. I think the best bet is to jump on the over 42 points before it increases.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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